Latest On Monday-Tuesday Forecast……..Thoughts On Next Week & WeekendNovember 24th, 2012 at 2:52 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Our next system, Monday-Tuesday, was largely based on a disturbance in the polar jet & a disturbance with nice, deep moisture from the tropical Pacific merging west of us. This looked to bring showers late Monday-Tuesday, ending as flurries.
New data sampling of both systems, as they move out of the Pacific & the other out of Mexico, is now showing that the split flow may really cut back on any rainfall here.
The northern disturbance & southern wave are looking more & more to remain separate, greatly decreasing any rainfall amounts here.
That said, we will watch this, but I am cutting back pops Monday evening-night to Tuesday to 30%, given this new, consistent trending.
Also, models are having a hard time with temperature. As of 3:05 p.m., it is still just 30 degrees on the WLFI thermometer, so data has not handle the temperature well today. That said, model analysis consistently has 48 degrees for a high tomorrow. I will stick with 47, as warm air moving in looks pretty potent & will stick with 40s Monday. New data will be monitored this evening to see if this trend of lowering temperatures needs to be done for Sunday-Monday.
I still like 30s for mid-late next week, but some new trends point towards a nice warm-up after rain/snow Friday. With consistent data pointing towards cold early December with negative NAO/AO, I am reluctant to put much stock in the new GFS run of 50s by next weekned. That just seems like a flip-flop & radical switch after this consistent coolness projected. I actually still prefer to think that our first snow would be in line for near December 10 & will continue to stick with that per analog data.