Latest On Monday-Tuesday Forecast……..Thoughts On Next Week & Weekend

November 24th, 2012 at 2:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Our next system, Monday-Tuesday, was largely based on a disturbance in the polar jet & a disturbance with nice, deep moisture from the tropical Pacific merging west of us.  This looked to bring showers late Monday-Tuesday, ending as flurries.

New data sampling of both systems, as they move out of the Pacific & the other out of Mexico, is now showing that the split flow may really cut back on any rainfall here.

The northern disturbance & southern wave are looking more & more to remain separate, greatly decreasing any rainfall amounts here.

That said, we will watch this, but I am cutting back pops Monday evening-night to Tuesday to 30%, given this new, consistent trending.

Also, models are having a hard time with temperature.  As of 3:05 p.m., it is still just 30 degrees on the WLFI thermometer, so data has not handle the temperature well today.  That said, model analysis consistently has 48 degrees for a high tomorrow.  I will stick with 47, as warm air moving in looks pretty potent & will stick with 40s Monday.  New data will be monitored this evening to see if this trend of lowering temperatures needs to be done for Sunday-Monday.

I still like 30s for mid-late next week, but some new trends point towards a nice warm-up after rain/snow Friday.  With consistent data pointing towards cold early December with negative NAO/AO, I am reluctant to put much stock in the new GFS run of 50s by next weekned.  That just seems like a flip-flop & radical switch after this consistent coolness projected.  I actually still prefer to think that our first snow would be in line for near December 10 & will continue to stick with that per analog data.

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