Outlook to December 18

November 15th, 2012 at 11:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Still looks like a pretty dry, mild pattern largely to December 3 with lots of 50s to even 60 or 61 & some 40s.

Much of the moisture will be wrapped up in a very active subtropical jet running from California to Georgia & Florida with strong “Pineapple Express” originating in central Pacific.  This deep moisture has origins in the El Nino Modoki (anomalously-warm water in central Pacific) & the MJO, which has an area of enhanced rainfall across the western & central Pacific right now (this MJO enhancement helped bring the extremely active tropical season with typhoon after typhoon in the western Pacific this summer & fall.)

Much of the moisture will be wrapped up in this over the southwestern & southern U.S., with us being in the middle of a split flow, resulting in dry, mild, pleasant weather.

Big changes are on tap December 4-11 with below-normal temperatures & what could be the first accumulating snow around December 10.

After this, there may be a warm-up as we get around December 18.

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6 Responses to “Outlook to December 18”

  1. Doug in Flora says:

    In other words, the MJO has some mojo…right? ;-)

  2. Tom says:

    Crista would have loved the winter of 1830-1831. The first big snowstorm I want to talk about is the big storm in December 1830. I couldn’t find any records from the viewing area but 3 feet of snow is said to have fallen in Illinois in Dec. 1830. Autumn 1830 was warm and wet in Illinois with the grass still green and the leaves on the trees in December. Between December 20 and Dec. 30. three feet of snow fell in IL. On New year’s day, warmer air brought rain, and the rain froze, forming a crust. More snow fell until there was 5 feet of snow on the ground. At Minneapolis, MN the temp. fell to 28 below on December 21. Records at St. Louis and Marietta, Ohio are in agreement that the snow and cold were widespread in the winter of 1830-1831.

  3. Tom says:

    Another big weather event happened in Dec. 1836. at Lafayette. On Thurs. evening Dec. 15, 1836 it started snowing and snowed until Friday night Dec. 16. Eight inches of snow fell and drifts were much greater. But Monday night Dec. 19 it started raining and rained until Tues. at 6pm. and the snow was nearly all gone. Here are some temps. from that time.
    Friday Dec. 16 7pm 19 degrees
    Sat. Dec. 17 7pm 19 degrees
    Sun. Dec. 18 7am 6 degrees
    Mon. Dec. 19 10pm 39 degrees
    Tues. Dec. 20 7am 34 degrees
    Tues. Dec. 20 6pm 34 degrees
    Tues. Dec. 20 7pm 10 degrees everything froze very quickly between 6 and 7pm
    Wed. Dec. 21 7am 6 below zero

  4. Tom says:

    Monday January 28, 1839-Six inches of snow fell in Lafayette, followed on Tuesday by some rain and sleet. Wednesday was cold with some floating snow.
    December 12-19 1839-There was a considerable fall of snow during that week at Lafayette.
    The winter of 1842-1843 was really bad. Cold and snow came in November and it was snowing on April 2, 1843 at sunset in Lafayette. I will talk more about this winter later.

  5. Tom says:

    The winter of 1842-1843 was called “The Hard Winter”
    On November 2 1842 the temp. was 60 degrees at Minneapolis, MN.
    Winter was here by November 18. On Nov. 18 it was 0 degrees in Platte County, MO. and snow fell 2 feet deep at Grand Rapids, MI. November 24-The snow was 2 inches deep at Lafayette and the Wabash river was closed with ice. February 17, 1843 it was 17 below at Huntertown, IN. On March 22, 1843 it was snowing at sunrise and noon in Lafayette. On March 23 it was 5 degrees as sunrise in Lafayette. March 30, 1843 a violent snowstorm left 2 feet of snow at the Lake county Indiana Courthouse.

  6. Tom says:

    The winters of 1855-1856 and 1856-1857 were hard winters. On January 4, 1856 the temp. fell to 20 below and on Feb. 4 the temp fell to 22 below at Lafayette. On January 14, 1857 there was a heavy fall of snow in Lafayette. On January 22, 1857 the temp. fell to 11 below in Lafayette. On March 6, 1857 a blinding snowstorm hit Lafayette. The storm lasted only a few minutes but covered the ground with snow. Another snowstorm hit Lafayette on the morning of April 5, 1857.

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