Effects of Big Nor’Easter Increasing for Our Area (Like Sandy)November 4th, 2012 at 12:26 pm by Chad Evans under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog
Effects of the big Nor’Easter are increasing for our area & altering the forecast.
These are the effects from the storm & changes to the forecast that appear to be developing:
1. WIND: Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday evening winds appear to be increasingly strong & gusty. Tuesday night-Wednesday afternoon appear to the ave the strongest winds here with sustained winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, perhaps 40 mph.
2. SHOWERS: Clipper will pass to our southwest Monday. This is the main one that will blow up into the Nor’Easter as the polar & subtropical jet merge in North Carolina. Some showers are possible Tuesday as the Nor’Easter moves up towards Virginia. This will be a second clipper that will tend to merge with the storm & allow it to really blow up near D.C.
3. COOL AIR: The storm is going to develop earlier. It will tend to already be in blow up mode northeast of Myrtle Beach & then really blow up once it gets to D.C. Peak strength appears to be in that D.C. to New York City & Providence zone. With it not just being a New York to Boston to Portland storm, but a nearly entire East Coast storm, the trough it will carve will be much deeper.
This will allow a lot of cool air to be pulled southward. So rather than it keeping the cool air eastern Ohio & eastward, this will have cool air blowing southward from Michigan to Florida with heavy snowfall as far south as the mountains of North Carolina & Virginia.
So, rather than mid 50s, 40s (perhaps just mid 40s) look more reasonable for early week.
Meanwhile, near-record heat will dominate the western half of the U.S., as it has for weeks. Denver has had more 70-degree days this late fall, than us, for example.
4. WARM SIDE, TOO THOUGH: When you have a deep trough in one place, there is a big ridge in the other, however. The big upper ridge west of the Nor’Easter trough will move eastward & bring us very warm weather by late week-next weekend. Some model data suggests 70, but we will see. 60s are guaranteed to end the week & go to next weekend, though.
This will set the stage for that powerhouse, big storm in the Plains mid-November with the first decent, soaking rain in weeks for us near November 12. Severe event or outbreak is POSSIBLE Missouri to Texas IF instability can become sufficient enough. Thinking it will right now with widespread warmth Plains to eastern U.S. Heavy snowfall will be possible in the Dakotas to the Rockies. Denver may actually see snow after being so warm recently. Seattle, show has been so warm, will see highs in the 40s for a change.
NEW EUROPEAN MODEL RUN:
NEW NAM MODEL:
NEW GFS MODEL: