Severe Outbreak Just West & Northwest of Here This Weekend (May Hold On Long Enough For Bit of Severe Threat In Western Counties)

October 11th, 2012 at 3:06 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was another cold morning with frost & low temperatures of 30-35 degrees.

It is a gusty day with peak wind gusts as high as 31 mph in our western & northwestern counties.  Temperatures are running in the 60s.

Winds will tend to diminish this evening to more like 10-20 mph, then 5-15 mph.  The will pick up again as the Alberta Clipper approaches & passes tonight with more clouds & perhaps a sprinkle or brief isolated shower.

Skies will go from mostly cloudy in the morning to mostly sunny Friday.  With winds turning from southwest to northwest to north & north-northeast tonight, they will turn to the east tomorrow at 10-20 mph.  Highs will be in the 54-60 range after morning lows in the 40s.

Powerful storm system with 100 mph upper jet & 80 mph low-level jet will produce a substantial outbreak of severe weather from Iowa to Illinois & Missouri this weekend.  An EF3 tornado will be possible on the triple point (where warm, cold & occluded front meet in Iowa).  Otherwise, looks like scattered wind, hail & some (many rain-wrapped) EF0-EF2s to our northwest (Also, warm front will pass Saturday in general 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. time frame in area with wave of some showers & t’storms, followed by 70s).

Supecells & multi-cells will congeal into QLCS squall line to our west Saturday-Saturday evening.  It will race northeast up to 70 mph.  The line will arrive into our area late Saturday night-early Sunday morning in a weakened fashion, but a few damaging gusts may, just may mix down our western counties.  Also, I cannot totally rule out a brief EF0 spin-up there either.

Reason is that dynamics are very impressive.  However, instability continues to be an issue that diminishes our overall severe threat & coverage.  However, given 80 mph low-level jet, any buoyancy that can indeed maintain itself could easily pull down a severe gust or two west of a Medaryville to Lafayette to Crawfordsville line.  Shear there is also good for that brief, isolated EF0 spin-up.

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