Darn Norman………….81 to 34 with Strong Cold Front………….Any Severe?

October 2nd, 2012 at 9:19 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Norman remnant circulation continues to spin just south of Lafayette.  It is totally cut off from the main upper jet, which is racing at over 120 mph in southern Canada.  A piece of the jet has pinched off & Norman is caught up in it like a car off-roading from the main highway with no where to go.  Underneath it, we will have drizzle, fog & some showers around tonight & into Wednesday.  I think a few scattered showers may continue with 25% coverage into the afternoon.

Notice the dip developing north of Montana.  That is a strong, strong cold front & upper trough that will rapidly deepen over the next few days bringing 1-3″ of wet snow to areas that had 85 yesterday &/or today in the Northern Plains.

That will cool us from 81 to 34 Thursday-Sunday morning.  With the front, a line/band of showers & t’storms are possible.  Given the highly-dynamic environment, a would not totally rule out a few severe storms, BUT the issue is instability.

Right now, it just does not look juicy enough to support much severe much.  SB & MUCAPE doesn’t support it (minimal SBCAPE & only 250 j/kg MUCAPE), nor do lapse rates. Will watch……..

 

2 Responses to “Darn Norman………….81 to 34 with Strong Cold Front………….Any Severe?”

  1. Mary Anne Best says:

    Hoping for rain with NO severe :-)

    Thanks Chad!

  2. William says:

    Chad,

    I am currently a student at Purdue studying atmospheric science. I was doing a project and stumbled upon an article that stated the temperature in the Southern Pacific Ocean is actually dropping, thus negating the effects of ENSO. I was wondering how, or if, this affects your winter forecast.

    Thank you,

    Will

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