September, 2012

The Forecast Wildcard: Norman

September 30th, 2012 at 4:25 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

New data has the remnants of Tropical Storm Norman making a sharp turn to the north, then northwest, bringing some showers Monday evening-night to Tuesday with lots of clouds.  In fact, one model has Norman remnants moving backward & moving DIRECTLY overhead Tuesday, before shooting off to the east Tuesday night.  Brisk east winds pivoting around the old Normal circulation will accompany the clouds & showers.  The main steering flow will be way north of here, so the remnants will just sort of wobble around, before stronger jet winds with that approaching cold front push it out.

So, upper ridging is normally a good friend, but it can be an enemy when steering currently are weak.  Systems can get cut off & just wobble around, like the Norman remnants.

So, unfortunately, this trend is definitely verified among most model solutions & I will have to put it in the forecast.  I hate doing that when it looked so good, so warm & so nice & dry until Friday in last week’s trends.

That said, this reminds me so, so much of last year.  Looked like upper ridge with dry, warm weather & an upper low retro-graded or moved backward & brought cool, showery weather in latter September, while the Plains & Canada were VERY WARM.  Then, we had a very brief warm-up, before a front came in & cooled it off to the 60s with some patchy frost in early October.

So, we look to have a brief burst of warmth of upper 70s to lower 80s, then front come through to end the week with some t’storms, followed by highs in the upper 50s & lower 60s & lows in the 30s (some places will have a light freeze).


53 Years Ago Significant Fall Severe Weather Occurred In the Viewing Area

September 29th, 2012 at 2:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

September 28, 1959

Late September 26-28, 1959 was an extremely active & deadly time in the Midwest & eventually mid-Atlantic with severe weather & tornado outbreaks.  On September 26, at least 21 tornadoes were confirmed by the Weather Bureau (pre-cursor to the National Weather Service) from Wisconsin & Illinois to Missouri & one tornado in southern Indiana (supercells on warm front).  A violent tornado of F4 strength was confirmed in Missouri with most of the tornadoes in Illinois at F2 strength.  The very next day, tornadoes occurred from Oklahoma to Illinois with two tornadoes in our area on September 28, one north of Rochester (F1) & one in Cass County (F2).  Damaging wind & hail also occurred in the viewing area.  On September 29, tornadoes occurred North Carolina to Virginia.  Ivy, Virginia was directly hit by a significant tornado with major damage & 11 fatalities.

Looking at parameters, they were certainly Moderate to High Risk days September 26-28 in the Midwest.

In Cass County, the F2 tornado (winds up to 157 mph) did damage north of Logansport, while damaging winds & hail of up to 1.25″ diameter occurred over most of the viewing area on September 28.  The other tornado, an F1 (with winds up to 112 mph) did damage north of Rochester from U.S. 31 to Michigan Road.


13 Years Ago, Significant Fall Severe Weather Outbreak Occurred

September 29th, 2012 at 1:19 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

September 28, 1999 – The Autumn HP Supercells
Three high-precipitation supercell t’storms popped on the outflow boundary from morning/afternoon rain/storms to the north & west amidst a hot, humid airmass on September 28, 1999.  Ahead of a strong fall cold front that was to usher in the first light frost of the season & under strong jet stream winds amidst substantial wind shear, the cells very rapidly pulsed up & became severe.  The first report of severe weather was a 58 mph wind gust at Pine Village.  This was the beginning of a long track of destruction across the heart of the WLFI viewing area as the three supercells evolved into a cluster, then bowing line segment.  Flash flooding was an issue with these high-precipitation supercells & 3 corridors of substantial flash flooding developed as extreme rainfall rates occurred.  However, the viewing area was in an Extreme Drought, so the rains, albeit very intense & torrential, they did east the drought.

You can certainly understand why this event is one of the top autumn severe events.  Imagine +100 mph downbursts, 2-3″ per-hour rainfall rates & golfball sized hail.

Supercell #1:  Pine Village to South of Yeoman

Reports of extremely high winds began in northeastern Warren County, then continued east-northeastward, blasting Montmorenci, West Lafayette & Klondyke.  One of the highest measured non-tornadic wind gust on record in our viewing area occurred from this storm with a 103 mph gust near Montmorenci.  Hundreds of acres of corn & soybeans that were about to be harvested were totally flattened by the apparent macroburst (damage diameter greater than 2.5 miles).  A 5th-wheel camper was overturned, injuring the occupant & 2 dozen homes received damage.

The storm continued east-northeastward & dropped an F1, 105 mph tornado on the southwest corner of the supercell, which tracked 4 miles to east-southeast to near Buck Creek.  Up to a half-mile wide, it produced over $300,000 in damage.  3 farm tool sheds were totally destroyed with the structural debri found in the tops of trees as far as 1-2 miles away.  With the tornado touchdown, golfball-sized hail began to fall from the storm.  A second downburst (in this case a microburst) belched from the storm with a measured wind gust of 64 mph at Buck Creek.  There is evidence of wind gusts to 80 mph east of Buck Creek.  This combined with golfball hail caused siding & roof damage to several homes & destroyed fields of unharvested crops all the way to western Carroll County.  Gaping holes were ripped in roofs by the wind-driven large hail.  Route 225 was impassable due to fallen trees.

Supercell #2:  South of Attica to Flora

Golfball-sized hail began to fall with this supercell southwest of Lafayette.  In Lafayette proper, $100,000 in damage was done (largely to cars).  Large hail continued with the storm with northeastward progression.  Golfball hail was reported at Radnor & Flora.  The first downburst (microburst) with this storm occurred near Radnor with a 64 mph wind gust measured & an 80 mph gust causing substantial tree damage.  A barn was destroyed by this microburst.

In White County, southwest of Brookston, the large hail core accumulated a snow-like covering several inches deep.  Radnor, in Carroll County also reported golfball-sized hail with substantial hail accumulation with a wind gust to 64 mph, as a third microburst was belched from the storm.  A barn was destroyed east of Radnor with estimated microburst gusts around 80 mph.  Golfball-sized hail was reported at Flora.

Supercell #3:  South of Otterbein to Brookston to Fulton (Storm Continued Northeastward with Sporadic, But Impressive Damage to Near Fort Wayne)

The third severe supercell popped just south of Otterbein, tracked into White County & began to produce a prolific golfball hailstorm.  Hail accumulated several inches near Brookston.  Entire fields of crops were destroyed & trees were totally stripped of leaves.  The storm continued northeastward with several inches of golfball hail in northwest Carroll County.  The first downburst (in this case microburst) was belched out northwest of Logansport with a 75 mph wind gust that caused tree & power line damage with crops fields damaged.  The storm then belched out the second extreme macroburst of the evening with 100 mph wind gust doing heavy damage southwest of Fulton to  Nyond Lake & South Mud Lake.  This macroburst alone produced over $125,000 in structural damage.  This storms second gust, a microburst, produced tens of thousands of dollars in structural damage north of Macy in Miami County. This same storm produced winds up to 80 mph in Whitley, DeKalby & Allen counties.  Significant damage to trees & powerlines occurred in Columbia City with many homes receiving minor structural damage.  Much of the city had no power for at least 24 hours.

The damage costs to these supercells were phenomenal.  In Tippecanoe County alone, just the hail caused over $100,000 in damage to structures.  Damage to automobiles was upwards of an additional $100,000 (Tippecanoe County, alone).  +$100,000 was done to structures via damaging winds.  $300,000 in damage was incurred by the tornado.  Crop damage in Warren, Tippecanoe, White, Carroll, Cass, Fulton & Miami counties mounted into the tens of millions of dollars as thousands of acres of crops were flattened or completely destroyed.


Outlook Now to October 8

September 28th, 2012 at 2:56 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After patchy fog this morning (visibility down to 0.15 miles at Cass County Airport, Grissom & 0.75 miles at Fulton County Airport).  We are now enjoying a nice day with a cumulus humilis-filled sky (partly cloudy).  Low temperatures varied from 40 to 56!  It was all due to a low cloud deck that developed with the fog underneath an inversion overnight.  Where the cloud deck set up, it was much warmer, but still foggy.

 

Temperatures are in the 60s to lower 70s.  We will cool rapidly into the 50s this evening, so grab a jacket headed out to the Friday Frenzy football games in the viewing area.

 

The weather looks good for the Purdue-Marshall match-up at Rose-Ade stadium.  For tailgaters it will be a chilly morning, but the afternoon looks good with fair-weather cumulus bubbling up, a nice north to northeast breeze & highs of 70-75.

It still looks like a long, dry, warm pattern will ensue with no hints of rainfall until late October 5 as the big, record-warm upper ridge to our northwest expands.  I had said October 7-ish, as I just couldn’t pinpoint the exact day, but it looks more & more like the evening of October 5.  A very strong surface low will pivot through southern Manitoba & will drag a surface cold front through.

It does not necessarily look a big cool blast behind the front per sey, but the front looks gusty with southwest winds to 35 mph in front of it & west to northwest winds to 35 mph behind it & we may have a couple mornings in the 30s after it passes (highs in the 60s to 70).  However, this will be a pretty big change after 80s. 

Dynamics are actually very suitable for a fast-moving narrow fall squall line of t’storms.  If we can get it unstable & moist enough, there may be a severe threat with this.  Stay tuned………….

 


Native Tree of the Week: Post Oak (Quercus stellata)

September 27th, 2012 at 5:00 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Native Tree of the Week last week:  Shingle Oak (Quercus imbricaria)

If Bur Oak is the tree of the black loam prairies & savannas in northern Indiana & Black Oak is the tree of the sandy prairies & savannas in northern Indiana, then Post Oak is the tree of the gray prairies & barrens of southwestern Indiana.  It is certainly a more southern oak in the U.S. with large amounts of Post Oak on the Blackland prairies of Texas & Oklahoma.  It is frequent in the southern U.S. pine barrens & in the Karst barrens/prairie region of Kentucky & Tennessee.  It cannot not thrive in a closed, crowded forest situation & survived in either a regime of fire or on really poor, dry sites where other trees cannot crowd it.  Where it is found on the richer soils of southwest Indiana, it was historically maintained by fire.

An isolated native population of Post Oak exists on the sandy/gravel slopes near Wea Creek in Tippecanoe County.  The closest population outside of this is in northern Clay County, Indiana near Route 159 & 246 intersection (a good 85 miles to the south), where I found several individuals growing mixed with White, Shingle & Black oaks, as well as Shagbark & Mockernut hickories.  Open woodland was on an upland slope of thick silty loess overlaying Illinois glacial till.  Native vegetation of this area was prairie mixed with barrens & ribbons of timber.  It was south of the large prairies running from Prairie Creek & Prairieton, Indiana to Blackhawk, Lewis & Clay City, Indiana.

This Tippecanoe population is an outlier from a much warmer, drier time in Indiana when Post Oak’s range greatly expanded to northern & central Indiana, before being crowded out & dying out by cooler, moister times in the climate pendulum.  Like a tidal pool, southern & western species’ ranges shrunk with the wetter regime & the island of more southern & western species remained along the sandy & gravelly areas around Granville.  This Post oak population may date back to Medieval times, perhaps the Hypsithermal.

There are really three types of Post Oak in Indiana that may be vague subspecies.

POST OAK TYPE #1:  SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA GRAY PRAIRIES/BARRENS………HIGH FLATWOODS OF LAKE PLAINS NEAR/AROUND PRE-SETTLEMENT BARRENS………..DRY UPLAND SLOPES WITH BLACK OAK

One grows on the gray prairies/barrens region of southwest Indiana on the silty loess soils & clay-loam soils of the region (Western Illinoian Till Plain).  In far southern & southwestern Indiana, it grows on clay soils of the Driftless area on acidic flatwoods, often on soils with a fragipan or a hard pan layer restricting downward movement of water.  It also grows in Black oak woods with hickory on dry, upland, south-facing slopes of the Driftless area.  It grows on higher flatwoods on the old lake plains (lacustrine soils), clay soils of southern Indiana, too.  These lake plains are layers & layers of silt & clay from trapped glacial meltwater settling in this part of the state during the Pleistocene.

In pre-settlement barrens areas of Spencer & Warrick County (nature area to view this environment:  Bloomfield Barrens Nature Preserve), the Post Oak grows on those clay flatwoods that are acidic & have a fragipan or pan in the soil that restricts downward movement of water.  They are wet in spring & bone-dry, desert environments in summer & fall.

Often a southern barrens & prairie indicator species, Post Oak is found with red cedar, blackjack, black oak in rocky glades on high, south-facing slopes in south-central Indiana hill country.  I also grows with Chestnut Oak & Virginia Pine in the “knobs” area of far southern Indiana on rocky slopes.  Post Oak is found on the Mitchell Karst Plain in former barrens & prairie areas with Black, White & Blackjack Oak & hickories from Orange through Washington & Harrison County, Indiana.

Closest associates to Post Oak in this area:  Swamp White Oak (Quercus bicolor); Shingle Oak (Quercus imbricaria); White Oak (Quercus alba); Black Oak (Quercus velutina); Shagbark Hickory (Carya ovata); Mockernut Hickory (Carya tomentosa)

Post Oak Woodland Survey

Odon City Park, Odon Indiana (~40 miles southwest of Bloomington) on rich dark brown loess soil on nearly-flat Illinoian Till Plain with coal-black soil of alluvium running through park.  Park was never cut & many oaks are +180 years old with fire-scarring in ring data.  One tree in a neighborhood 1/2 mile northeast of the park is over 200 years old with land survey reading “prairie”.

At European settlement this park was surrounded on three sides by tallgrass prairie & the park itself was oak-hickory barrens in land survey with Black Walnuts & American Elm along a stream.

Species Order of Occurrence In the Tract

1.  Shagbark Hickory  (Carya ovata)

2.  Post Oak (Quercus stellata)

3.  Mockernut Hickory (Carya tomentosa)

4.  Shingle Oak  (Quercus imbricaria)

4.  Black Tupelo  (Nyssa sylvatica)

5.  Shumard Oak  (Quercus shumardii)

6.  White Oak  (Quercus alba)

7.  Black Oak  (Quercus velutina)

8.  Pignut Hickory (Carya ovalis)

9.  Black Walnut  (Juglans nigra)

POST OAK TYPE #2:  POPULATION A NORTHERN PROTRUSION CLOSELY-RELATED TO DELTA POST OAK (A SUBSPECIES THAT IS LARGER, MORE VIGOROUS & GROWS WITH OTHER HARDWOODS IN THE HIGH BOTTOMS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY) IN FAR, FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA

There is a different genotype of Post Oak that grows faster, gets larger & is better able to compete with other oaks Posey & Vanderburgh counties in Indiana.  I competes with the Southern Red Oak, Cherrybark Oak, Pin, Swamp White, White Oaks in flatwoods of this area well & gets to be a very large tree up to 100′.  This genotype is more closely-related to a subspecies of Post Oak called Delta Post Oak.  In fact, this population may be a northernmost protrusion of Delta Post that has naturally hybridized with the typical southwest Indiana Post Oak.

Closest associates to Post Oak in this area:  Winged Elm (Ulmus alata): Southern Red Oak (Quercus falcata); Cherrybark Oak (Quercus pagodafolia) Swamp White Oak (Quercus bicolor); Shingle Oak (Quercus imbricaria); White Oak (Quercus alba); Black Oak (Quercus velutina); Blackjack Oak (Quercus marilandica); Shagbark Hickory (Carya ovata); Mockernut Hickory (Carya tomentosa); Shellbark Hickory (Carya laciniosa)

POST OAK TYPE #3:  MORE RELATED TO SAND POST OAK (GROWS ON DRY EOLIAN SAND HILLS OF LOWER WABASH & WHITE RIVER VALLEYS IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA)

There is a type of Post Oak that is restricted to the sand hills of southwestern Indiana.  It tends to be shorter & squatty compared to the gray prairie Post Oak & will not grow in loam or clay soil well at all.  I grows in the very well-drained Eolian sands bordering the east side of the Lower Wabash & White River Valleys.  I have tried to plant Post Oak growing on sand with Post Oak growing on gray prairie or loess soil & the tree never survives.  The sand barrens Post Oak genotype is different than the Post Oak of the gray prairies.  It is more related to the subspecies of Post Oak called Sand Post Oak, which is not found in Indiana.

Closest associates to Post Oak in this area:  Blackjack Oak (Quercus marilandica); Black Oak (Quercus velutina); White Oak (Quercus alba); Chinkapin Oak (Quercus muhlenbergii); Sand Hickory (Carya pallida); Arkansas Black Hickory (Carya texana var. arkansana);

 

Post Oak is generally a slow grower.  In acorns I germinated from a Post Oak woods on an old prairie 40 miles northeast of Vincennes, Indiana, the trees are just above my waste (I am 6’3″)& I germinated them in 2001.  The same redbud trees I germinated are over my head now.  A tuliptree I planted at the same time & was 1′ tall, is 20′ tall at the same site!  I just keep thinking I really won’t see this Post Oaks do much until I am 60 or 70 years old!  Truly, it takes a lifetime from seedling to even start to see Post Oak tree really develop.

It is like Shingle Oak in that it cannot tolerate shade & needs warm, open areas to germinate.  It cannot compete with most other species well.  The genotype more closely related to Delta Post Oak is much better at competition & some shade than the other genotypes.  When Post Oak reaches 150-200 years old, though, it is a magnificent tree & still ranks as one of my favorites.  I have seen 200-300 year-old Post Oaks in the open that resemble the idyllic very old English Oaks of the British countryside.

Its bark resembles White Oak to sometimes Swamp White Oak, its old limbs are often contorted, twisted & picturesque.  It hold its dry, rusty foliage into the winter, especially on younger trees & lower limbs.

Tolerating fire as good as Bur Oak, it sprouts well after a burn & was a main species with Black Oak in the “oak stool” environment of the Karst prairie & barrens in far south-central Indiana at European settlement.  Each fire burning over the Post Oak would initiate healing of burned, thick bark, causing large chunks of tissue to form above & just below ground.  These reportedly made plowing the virgin reddish Karst soil difficult as these oak stool would break steel plows.  This would form thickets & shrubbery of Post Oak.

Being a slow-grower, Post Oak puts a lot of energy into growing deep roots (specifically tap root when young) & put dense, dense rings into the wood.  The wood is very heavy & resistant to rot.

Post Oak barrens/savannas:

Leaves, acorns, bark, shape & early fall color of Post Oak:

 

//

//

//

//

//


Interesting Clouds This Morning

September 27th, 2012 at 2:41 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We had patchy fog & low stratus clouds this morning from low-level inversion trapping moisture.

Debby caught a great shot of the mechanics occurring this morning on I-74 near Crawfordsville.  You see interestingly-shaped “scarf” or “cap” clouds forming just underneath the inversion.  A solid overcast had not formed, but thermals at the surface from heating were hitting that inversion & causing bulges in it.

As the thermals bulged the lid, the moisture condensed & the interesting cloud elements formed.

Thank you Debby for this great picture!


Fall-Winter-Spring-Summer-Fall 2012-2013 Forecast

September 26th, 2012 at 11:29 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We’ve nailed the previous forecasts well.  Using the same techniques, hopefully we nail this winter (& fall, spring & next summer).  We are 3-0 in White Christmas forecasts.

FALL:  COOL, WET EARLY FALL, THEN DRIER & WARMER LATTER FALL………….

WINTER:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES & BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WINTER WITH NORMAL SNOWFALL……

SPRING:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES & BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SPRING…………BELOW-NORMAL SNOWFALL

SUMMER:  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL RAINFALL NEXT SUMMER……………

FALL 2013:  WARM, DRY EARLY NEXT FALL (DROUGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE), THEN WET & COOL LATE FALL……….

EL NINO:  As of September 12, El Nino is weak in the Pacific with a 0.7 reading on a scale of 0 (neutral) to 3 (very strong El Nino)…………….(-3 would be very strong La Nina, -1.0 or 0.5 weak La Nina).

Forecast guidance suggests El Nino to increase in intensity to a weak event by December-January, then largely turn to neutral status by early next summer.  Wouldn’t be surprised if it gets a hair stronger, but not anticipating a big event.

Lack of Arctic ice due to warmth & strong winds of incredibly strong polar vortex & the strong polar vortex bottling some of the Arctic air up will make this winter nothing extremely warm, but not really cold either.  Snowfall will run normal, give strong subtropical jet interacting with some cold spells here.  One icing event is likely (mixed with snow & sleet in February), but it does not look major.

Volcanic aerosols are not above normal & given polar vortex personality last year & right now, thinking NAO/AO will spend a lot of time in the neutral to positive phase.

1934-35 was a strong match for the upcoming fall-winter-spring-summer in terms Northern Hemisphere pattern & U.S. soil moisture pattern.  1930, 1931, 1936, 1939, 1940 all had hot, dry summers with rainfall relief in early to mid-August, but only 1934 saw the heat wave migrate westward pretty much stay just west of us mid- to late-August through September, just like now.  Much higher soil moisture here developed by early September, while the Plains continued the same pattern as in summer (just like now).

1934-35 was not outstanding.  It had normal to above-normal snowfall & above normal temperatures & below-normal precipitation.

I think what will bring us normal snowfall is the strong, moisture-charged subtropical jet reacting with our seasonably cold air.  So, that is why I forecasted normal snowfall & two winter-storm watch/warning events.

Thinking the southwest U.S. mountains, southern Plains & mid-Atlantic & northeast U.S. could get pretty big snows.  There will be several big Nor’easters in the northeast with one significant ice storm in the Piedmont & coastal Plain of the Carolinas, into the Appalachians & as far north as Virginia.  It could be a really damaging ice storm.  Arctic airmass eastern Ohio to the Northeast will support very impressive lake effect (perhaps some record lake effect snows) around Cleveland, Buffalo & Jamestown.

I think unseasonable snows may occur at low elevations in the Desert Southwest with perhaps a record 4-6″ snow for Tucson, even Albuquerque may see a BIG snow event.  Flooding will be possible in southern California to Texas with snows in northern & central Texas to Oklahoma.  I think there may be one event where a cold upper low brings wet snow to Dallas, Austin with perhaps flakes to San Antonio & Little Rock.  The southern U.S. just looks wet with frequent rain & storms with a lot of chilly, gray days.  Strong subtropical jet will support a higher-than-normal potential of severe weather events in the South, specifically on the Gulf Coast & on the Florida peninsula.  Combine such moisture with cold air from all of the Northeast snow damming up in the Appalachians & you spell trouble for icing in the Appalachians, Piedmont & Coastal Plain (see above).

SEPTEMBER 2012

Temperatures:  Below-Normal  (-1.9)

Max Temperature:  90

Min Temperature:  37

Rainfall:  Above -Normal (+1.03″)

Early-mid September may be wet with slightly-above normal temperatures overall, but chilly pattern will below-normal rainfall is likely latter month.  In fact patchy frost is possible on two occasions late month.  That pattern will carry us to early October.

OCTOBER 2012

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+2.0)

Max Temperature:  83

Min Temperature:  27

Rainfall:  Below-Normal (-0.52″)

Snowfall:  0

After a chilly latter September to early October, I expect above-normal temperature to return for October.  There will be many days in the 70s & in the 80s.  Even in early October, after the chilly latter September, 80s are possible.  The first freeze is likely around October 15 with 31 & first 20s October 25 with 27.  Rainfall looks below-normal.

Right now, doesn’t look like any big substantial weather events, but we may have a few t’storms on one day.

NOVEMBER 2012

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+3.8)

Max Temperature:  73

Min Temperature:  20

Rainfall:  Below-Normal (-0.93″)

Snowfall:  Trace

November looks windy & mild with below-normal rainfall.  We may open the first few days with 60s & 70s one day.   From the 5th through the 15th it looks like a lot of 50s & 40s with a stretch of warm 60s, even some lower 70s mid-month possible.  In fact, we may fit together 4 or 5 days in the 60s to lower 70s, before a line of storms (severe) slices through & ends the mild stretch.  Late month looks cooler, but I am currently doubtful any reading below 20 will occur.

From Thanksgiving onward, 40s are a good bet, but I do not see a high temperature below 40 in November.  Snowfall looks below normal with only a trace on 2 days.

DECEMBER 2012

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+1.3)

Max Temperature:  59

Min Temperature:  6

Rainfall:  Above-Normal (-0.77″)

Snowfall:  Near Normal (5.2″) Normal is 5.9″

The first high temperature below 40 will be in early, early December with the first teens night around December 8.  The early half of December looks below-normal temperature-wise with a lot of highs in the 20s & 30s with 3-4 minor snows of less than 1.3″.  One snow will reach 3″, followed by an overnight low of 6 towards the end of the cold snap.  However, after December 20, it looks more normal to above normal with several days of highs in the 40s & a few 50s with more in the way of rain than snow.

It does not look like a White Christmas this year (1″ or more of snowfall on the ground Christmas morning).

JANUARY 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+2.4)

Max Temperature:  61

Min Temperature:  -6

Precipitation:  Near Normal (+0.05″)

Snowfall:  Near Normal (7.2″)  Normal is 7.4″

The first half of January looks pretty mild with 3-4 days in the 50s (one day at 61) & several days in the 40s.  The second half of January looks colder with more in the way of 20s & 30s with one icing event & several minor 1-3″ snows & one 4-6″ snow & -6 right after that snowfall.  There may even be some icing with that 4-6″ event in our southern counties.  However, I think we will sneak in one 55-degree day in latter January.

FEBRUARY 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+2.1)

Max Temperature:  63

Min Temperature:  -7

Precipitation:  Near Normal (+0.05″)

Snowfall:  Near Normal (4.7″)  Normal is 4.9″

The first half of February looks seasonably cold with lots of highs in the 30s & some minor 1-3″ snows.  Although mid-February may be mild with one day at 58 & one at 63, a cold front will pass & may bring a winter weather event to end the month with a mix of sleet, freezing & snow with 2-5″ of snowfall.  There may be some 1/8 – 1/4″ ice accumulations with that winter weather event in late February.

MARCH 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+2.3)

Max Temperature:  75

Min Temperature:  13

Precipitation:  Below-Normal (-0.92″)

Snowfall:  Below Normal  (1.1″)

Early March looks warm with several days in the 60s with one day at 73.  However, mid March looks like 30s & 40s with one 1.1″ snowfall.  Late March looks like it will go back to several days in the 60s & even 2-3 days at 70-75.  As March ends & April begins, 40s will chill it down with a 50s April Fool’s Day (see April below).

APRIL 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+3.3)

Max Temperature:  87

Min Temperature:  25

Precipitation:  Below-Normal (-0.98″)

Snowfall: Below-Normal (0)

Early April may be a little on the raw side with some 40s & 50s days mixed with a few 60s days.  Troughiness with periodic scattered showers will dominate the pattern here.  However, the tables will turn after April 14 with 3-4 days of 80s & strong winds & a strong upper ridge migrating from the west, into our area.  A severe weather event may end this surge of summer warmth with a stair-step cool-down with a patchy frost of 31-34 to end the month.

I am forecasting 1 severe weather event & 1 confirmed tornado in the viewing area in April 2013.

MAY 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+3.0)

Max Temperature:  92

Min Temperature:  35

Precipitation:  Below-Normal (-1.46″)

Early May looks like April with sort of raw, cool, showery conditions with a trough for the first week or two, followed by a stair-step surge of warmth mid to late May.  Latter May looks summery with 85-90 frequently & passing waves of some storms.  This all spells high evaporation & below-normal rainfall.  Concern may arise again in regards to drought & D0 to D1 conditions are possible, but consistent rains will return in June.

Right now, I expect a GOOD crop year with the crop getting out early & timely & the dry May preventing drowned-out spots in fields.  The below-normal rainfall for this May may work on some nerves, given the horrendous 2012, though.

I only expect 2 severe events in May & 1 tornado in the viewing area.

JUNE 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+1.8)

Max Temperature:  96

Min Temperature:  48

Precipitation:  Above-Normal (+1.17″)

June 2013 looks warmer than normal, but nothing out of control with consistent waves of t’storms & 3 severe events for the month.  I am forecasting 2 confirmed tornadoes in the viewing area for the month.  It looks overall hot & muggy, but nothing excessive.  Late month heat wave with highs of 94-98 with dew points in the 70s & heat indices to 110 will be the worst of the heat.

JULY 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+1.7)

Max Temperature:  97

Min Temperature:  54

Precipitation:  Above-Normal (+0.63″)

July will have a continuation of waves of storms, but mid-month dry spell in a good chunk of the viewing area may fray nerves of growers.  Rolling of the corn may occur on sandy fields & high upland loamy/clay fields in pollination time, but I am doubtful of big yield losses (some though).  The mesic, black, loamy soils will fair okay.  I think 3 severe events are likely, but no tornadoes.  Thinking the events will be multi-cellular storm events of wind/hail & maybe one main squall line.

Mid-month dry spell with have highs of 95-100 in the area with 97 at West Lafayette.  These numbers would occur for around 3 days.

July will be an above-normal month overall for temperatures, but a couple cool snaps with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 & lows in the 50s will help.

AUGUST 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+1.4)

Max Temperature:  96

Min Temperature:  52

Precipitation:  Normal (+0.21″)

August rainfall looks normal with multi-cell storms & consistent heat & humidity with above-normal temperatures.  Cool spell for 2 days early & late month will drop it to 50-55 at night.

SEPTEMBER 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+1.2)

Max Temperature:  91

Min Temperature:  45

Precipitation:  Normal (+0.20″)

Normal rainfall & above-normal temperatures will occur in September 2013, but most of the rainfall may be early in the month & then again late.  One from cold front, second wave from a tropical system.  Mid-month will see a 45-degree night.  That 91 will tend to occur very early in the month.

OCTOBER 2013

Temperatures:  Above-Normal  (+2.5)

Max Temperature:  85

Min Temperature:  27

Precipitation:  Below-Normal (-1.05″)…………Monthly Total:  1.68″

October 2013 looks to have two personalities.  First half, warm & very dry with little/no rainfall.  After October 18, I like below-normal temperatures & above-normal rainfall with several very raw days.  85 will occur in the first half of the month, followed by many 40s & 50s days after October 18.  The first freeze October 24 will see the 27.  First 18 days of the month will see two nights at 36 & that is it, though 40s at night will be common.


Above-Normal Temperatures & Dry Weather On the Way As We Move Into October

September 26th, 2012 at 9:39 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It still looks like a warmer, drier pattern will set in as we move into October.  The first 80-degree temperature in weeks is likely next week.

Right now, there is no indication of any rainfall to October 7.


Areas of Fog Now……..May Mix Out for A While………….Then Patchy Fog May Re-Form

September 26th, 2012 at 8:17 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Patchy fog to areas of fog have already began to form.  Be aware of areas of fog for a while.  An ensuing north to northwest breeze may mix it out for a bit, but I will keep patchy fog in the forecast for the last night & early morning.


Some Showers/T’Showers South of U.S. 24

September 26th, 2012 at 2:27 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Some showers & t’showers are passing through the southern half of the viewing area, south of U.S. 24.