I will need to put isolated tornado risk northeastward to Lafayette, Pine Village, Frankfort, Crawfordsville & Attica to Covington to Perrysville.
Why? It appears main wave of rain & a few t’storms will pass Saturday morning-midday. This wave will pivot northwestward & actually put us in a bit of a break for a little bit in the afternoon.
With some peeks of sun possible, new scattered showers/storms will pop just east of Isaacs center in a warm, tropical, rather sheared environment. This spoke around Isaac will pivot our way & an isolated, brief, EF0 spin-up or two cannot be ruled out.
Waves of scattered showers & a few t’storms (average of 50% coverage) will pivot around Isaac as he pivots up near I-70 Sunday. Even Monday, some scattered showers & a few t’storms will pass with around 40% coverage.
Historic heat wave continues to grip areas from Montana to Iowa to Nebraska, the Dakotas & Colorado. It will bring 100 to the Northeast this weekend.
If not for Isaac 100 would be here & if we had dry soils, 105. The heat has been absolutely incredibly to our northwest with 112 at Winner, South Dakota. Even Denver set an all-time late-season record of 97, as did Valentine, Nebraska at 108!
Isaac clouds & showers/t’storms & circulation will keep the heat wave at bay & a cold front will cut the heat wave in the Plains, Great Lakes & Northeast by early- to mid-next week.
On-going forecast looks good. Narrow wave of isolated showers/t’showers along I-74 still looks good today with an increase in cloud from south to north with the coolest readings in our southern counties. I may tweak the temp down a couple degrees, given this Isaac cloud cover looking thicker than anticipated. So, upper 80s south, 90 middle & lower 90s north will do.
Isaac remnants will NOT bring a solid, steady rain for 3 days, but waves/bands of showers & a few t’storms. It appears the heaviest, most widespread band may still be Saturday afternoon-evening.
Like 60% coverage of rainfall Saturday, 50% Sunday & upped Monday unfortunately to 40%, given trend for more in the way of some scattered showers/t’showers on Labor Day itself.
1-3″ of rainfall Saturday-Monday still looks good. A couple isolated 4″ amounts are possible in our far northwest counties.
Former hurricane/tropical storm tracks through/near our area since 1885 plotted on map below:
Only change to the forecast is for isolated t’showers/showers along I-74 tomorrow as the outermost bands of Isaac may pop some of these on that I-74 corridor. Any one of these will tend to die off in the evening. A couple more may move in that I-74 corridor Saturday morning, followed by a wave of showers/storms in the afternoon-evening where most/entire viewing area will be affected.
Overall, clouds will tend to increase from south to north through the day.
I went cooler at 90 in the far south to 96 in the northwest & 93 in Lafayette.
1-3″ rain still looks good for the viewing area for Saturday-Monday totals. Still looks like best potential of an isolated 4″ amount would be Newton/Jasper.
With the wettest August since 1987 in parts of the viewing area, drought conditions have continued to improve. Extreme to Exceptional Drought is no longer found in the viewing area. Although Moderate to Severe Drought conditions are still found, we have seen nice downgrades to the drought over the past 3 weeks.
For the first time since the 2008-2009 season the Boilermakers will begin their conference schedule in the friendly confines of Mackey Arena.
Experience will be lacking in the early going and the Boilers MUST take advantage of playing 3 of their first 4 at Mackey if they have any thoughts of playing deep into March.
Towards the middle portion of their schedule the Boilermakers will get their first crack at rival Indiana in West Lafayette on Jan. 30th, and will venture to Bloomington on Feb. 16th. Purdue will get its final two Big Ten games at home, playing Michigan and Minnesota on March 6th and 9th.
The end of their schedule may be just as important as the beginning. If the Boilermakers can with 3 of 4 at the beginning and at the end of the season then they will be in good shape for yet another NCAA appearance.
Purdue fans will have a wild ride this winter as we all adjust to life without Robbie Hummel and Lewis Jackson. Only time will tell which newcomers will step up and carry the load on offense and defense.
Record Labor Day weekend heat wave will hit areas to our northwest, north & northeast. If not for Isaac, this would be here, too. Readings as high as 107 will continue to occur in Nebraska with the potential of 100 in parts of the Northeast, even.
Regardless a 92- to 96-degree day will occur tomorrow in our viewing area.
Looks like showers/few storms would tend to move in Saturday midday & onward & pass in a periodic fashion through Sunday. Right now, looks like that first initial wave would be the heaviest & most-widespread.
A few showers/t’storms may pivot in on Isaac’s backside Monday, but I would not cancel outdoor plans per sey. Just be prepared to go inside for perhaps 30 minutes a time or two.
Winds will run 15-25 mph from Isaac Saturday & be pretty calm as he passes directly overhead Sunday.
1-3″ looks like a good forecast for the area with a couple isolated 4″ amounts total from Isaac Saturday-Sunday-Monday. Right now, it does not look like flooding will be a big issue. It appears showers/some storms will arrive Saturday (up to 70% coverage late) with some Saturday night & additional showers & few storms Sunday (50%). A few showers/storms may pivot in Monday, but coverage then will run at 30%. A passing cold front will bring 30% coverage of showers/storms Tuesday, followed by dry, cooler, pleasant weather Wednesday-Friday of next week.
Why am I not talking up the flooding?
Below in the first graphic is a flash flood guidance graphic showing how much rain we could take on in a 6-hour period before we see flooding. You can see most of the area can handle 4″ in 6 hours, but anything above that in 6 hours would result in flooding.
In the second graphic, you can see that NOAA flash flood guidance shows that we could handle 3″ in 3 hours, but anything above that would bring flooding.
With largely 1-3″ over a 3-day period (isolated 4″ amount or two), such rainfall does not exceed the threshold for flooding in the area with current deficits & soil moisture (even with recent heavy rainfall).
The Dewayne Beckford era is officially OVER in West Lafayette.
Head Coach Danny Hope had said Beckford was suspended indefinitely at his press conference on Tuesday. A day later, he met with reporters after practice and updated Beckford’s status, saying the decision became “official” on Wednesday.
No one has ever questioned how big of an impact he had on the field or how important he was to this year’s team. However, the fact is even though Purdue now has ZERO chance or replacing him this season with one player the Boilermakers are better off without #3.
It’s now time to see what Joe Gilliam, Antwon Higgs and Sean Robinson have to offer and which of the three will step up and make plays needed at the MLB position. I hope its Gilliam or Higgs because I just don’t see how Sean Robinson playing significant time in the middle will translate into wins in the heart of the Boilermaker schedule.
On Monday at his weekly press conference head coach Danny Hope called Gilliam the team’s “fourth-best” linebacker behind Beckford and starters Will Lucas and Robert Maci. All indications at this point lead me to believe it is his job to lose this season. With that being said, I believe Higgs will get some playing time there and they may end up splitting the reps 50/50 to try and build some depth at the position.
Coach Hope said Wednesday the team is moving on and I don’t think they have choice.
“We’re getting ready to play a football game and win the football game without Dewayne,” he said.
Needless to say the progression of Joe Gilliam, Antwon Higgs and Sean Robinson will be key to the success the Boilermakers have this season. At this point it seems like that is the Boilermakers biggest question mark.