Weekly Outlook………….When Is the Winter-Spring-Summer 2012-13 Outlook Coming Out?

July 28th, 2012 at 11:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NOTE:  I have had lots of questions regarding the winter forecast.  The past three years of winter forecasts, I have started working on it in late August & will do so this year.  I hope to have it completed in early to mid September.

NOW TO TONIGHT-NEXT WEEK’S FORECAST…….

Showers & storms are occurring in the “Ring of Fire” in Nebraska, Iowa & Kansas right on the edge of that tremendous heat wave & upper ridge.  Cirrus from these showers & storms is blowing off into our area.

It is this “Ring of Fire” on the edge of 105-110* St. Louis & westward (115* Oklahoma) next week that will allow storm clusters to flirt with us.  It is too early to determine which ones will really affect us & which ones will not & which ones will be smaller & less substantial.  I think they will be wobbly clusters in the ring with hits & misses for us.  30% pops will do for a good chunk of the week.

In terms of heat, I still think it is quite reasonable to think that the heat wave will make a bulge eastward & give us a couple really hot days in the 90s to 100.  Otherwise, it is 90s all week.

RAINFALL DEFICIENCES…….DROUGHT DISCUSSION………

Any rain helps, but we are 6-14″ below normal area-wide with those +12″ deficiences in our southern counties.  At WLFI, we are 9.60″ below normal, rainfall-wise,  for 2012 as of July 28.

You may wetten the soil with a 0.75″ rain, for example, & that rain would, on average, soak about 4-5″ into the ground.  On average, a 1″ rain soaks in 6″ into the soil.  However, our deficits are long, long term with significant reductions in moisture deep into the top & subsoils & then into the water table.  One can see that with river, lake, bog, marsh & stream/river levels.  Frequent, sustained substantial to significant rainfall events over several months will be needed to re-charge subsoil moisture & replenish groundwater & river/streams.

Wet years in 2008 & 2009 have helped & little in the groundwater & subsoil drought.  Without those very wet years, this hydrologic drought could be even worse.

2 Responses to “Weekly Outlook………….When Is the Winter-Spring-Summer 2012-13 Outlook Coming Out?”

  1. Mary Anne Best says:

    According to my records here we have had less than 10 inches rain this year. I have lived a long time and have seen Mother Nature even things out. One of these years we will have abundant (maybe too much so!) rainfall :-)

    MA in REM enjoying this beautiful Sunday morning!

  2. william reed says:

    chad i will be 50 in october so i am forcasting 50+ inches for the winter of 2012-13 remember 1978 could be a repeat or worse

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