July, 2012

Isolated Storms Ending……………Fire Threat

July 31st, 2012 at 6:29 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Front is moving south & we are becoming capping, so isolated storm potential is ending.

Temperatures will cool to 58-64 tonight with the potential of some patchy fog.

A very, pretty brisk dry north-northeast wind will bleed in Wednesday with high of 89-94 & dew points in the 40s to the 50s with relative humidity levels at 18-24%.  This will lead to an elevated to high fire danger in places.


Few Storms………….Small Hail Possible Northeast of Attica

July 31st, 2012 at 3:56 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A few storms are popping & moving through the area as of 4 p.m.  Isolated microburst/hail threat remains for any storm that can really pulse up.  Their high-based nature & large dew point depressions support the microburst threat & the high elevated instability & some cool air upstaits supports a few hailstones.

Storm northeast of Attica may produce pea to marble hail.


Right On the Edge of Historic Heat Wave In “Ring of Fire”

July 31st, 2012 at 2:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We are right on the edge of that tremendous Plains heat wave in the “Ring of Fire”.  It is 91.8 at WLFI, but 97 at Perrysville & 96 at Veedersburg, 95 at Crawfordsville & 99 at Terre Haute.  Charleston, Illinois, northwest of Terre Haute, has 100 & Decatur, Illinois just hit 100.

Meanwhile, Peru has just 84 & Rensselaer 87.  Attica has 93.

It is currently 107 at Tulsa, Oklahoma, 108 at Chandler, Oklahoma & 104 at Oklahoma City.  Readings in Oklahoma will tie all-time record highs today (set in 1936).  Oklahoma City’s all-time record high of 113 will be in jeopardy not only today, but all week. 

We had a few storms on the “Ring of Fire” this morning & a few more are likely today with just 20-25% coverage.  Given us being right on the edge of the boiling heat & all the dry air near the surface & at mid-levels with the impressive instability at those mid-levels, will go for isolated severe, mainly in that watch zone area.  Threat would be for an isolated microburst &/or a few large hailstones in a storm that would happen to pulse up.  Dry air will keep coverage low & not over that afformentioned 20-25%. 

It reminds me of Desert Southwest/High Plains instability & the high-based storms that occur in the summer.  The altocumulus castellanus clouds show the high-based instability.

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Years With Extreme to Exceptional Droughts Since 1900

July 30th, 2012 at 11:37 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

These are the times since 1900 with Extreme to Exceptional Drought in the viewing area.


Outlook Now to Mid-August

July 30th, 2012 at 2:20 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Trend now-August is for above-normal temperatures & below-normal rainfall.  The extreme heat to our west will flirt with us & bulge a bit eastward time to time, especially in early August.

However, I still do think we will get some nights in the 50s (especially with those dry soils & dry air, which allow your nighttime temperature to fall more) around here time to time in August & rather than solid 100s & 90s, spurts of 85-90 will bleed in from the northeast.


The Last Time We Had Extreme Drought In the Viewing Area

July 29th, 2012 at 9:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

CURRENT 2012 RAINFALL DEFICITS:

Purdue University Airport  -9.30″

WLFI -9.60″

Rensselaer -7.02″

Jasper County Airport -6.01″

Rochester -10.96″

Mary Anne informed me that her Remington station had only had 10″ for the year, which would make her total about 12″ below normal!

OTHER PARTS OF INDIANA:

Indianapolis -9.84″

North Webster -9.40″

Evansville -13.70″

Terre Haute -14.32″

Bloomington -15.97″

The last time Extreme Drought existed in the viewing area was late September 1999 with the drought lasting through the fall.  Before 1999, summer 1988 had the last Extreme Drought.  Before summer 1988, fall 1964 had an Extreme drought in those rough fall droughts of the early 1960s with their water restrictions.

Summer-fall 1954 & 1956 had 1988-like droughts with the searing heat & widespread drought which greatly affected crops.


Weekly Outlook………….When Is the Winter-Spring-Summer 2012-13 Outlook Coming Out?

July 28th, 2012 at 11:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

NOTE:  I have had lots of questions regarding the winter forecast.  The past three years of winter forecasts, I have started working on it in late August & will do so this year.  I hope to have it completed in early to mid September.

NOW TO TONIGHT-NEXT WEEK’S FORECAST…….

Showers & storms are occurring in the “Ring of Fire” in Nebraska, Iowa & Kansas right on the edge of that tremendous heat wave & upper ridge.  Cirrus from these showers & storms is blowing off into our area.

It is this “Ring of Fire” on the edge of 105-110* St. Louis & westward (115* Oklahoma) next week that will allow storm clusters to flirt with us.  It is too early to determine which ones will really affect us & which ones will not & which ones will be smaller & less substantial.  I think they will be wobbly clusters in the ring with hits & misses for us.  30% pops will do for a good chunk of the week.

In terms of heat, I still think it is quite reasonable to think that the heat wave will make a bulge eastward & give us a couple really hot days in the 90s to 100.  Otherwise, it is 90s all week.

RAINFALL DEFICIENCES…….DROUGHT DISCUSSION………

Any rain helps, but we are 6-14″ below normal area-wide with those +12″ deficiences in our southern counties.  At WLFI, we are 9.60″ below normal, rainfall-wise,  for 2012 as of July 28.

You may wetten the soil with a 0.75″ rain, for example, & that rain would, on average, soak about 4-5″ into the ground.  On average, a 1″ rain soaks in 6″ into the soil.  However, our deficits are long, long term with significant reductions in moisture deep into the top & subsoils & then into the water table.  One can see that with river, lake, bog, marsh & stream/river levels.  Frequent, sustained substantial to significant rainfall events over several months will be needed to re-charge subsoil moisture & replenish groundwater & river/streams.

Wet years in 2008 & 2009 have helped & little in the groundwater & subsoil drought.  Without those very wet years, this hydrologic drought could be even worse.


Comparing July 2012 to Hottest, Driest Julys of Record In the Viewing Area

July 28th, 2012 at 11:12 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The viewing area will not beat the 1936 July heat & dryness, but overall, it looks to be the driest, hottest July since the mid 1950s & since 1936 for for a few select areas.

JULY 2012

WLFI       81.2       0.88″  Hottest since 1936, driest since 1936 (in Purdue Ag Farm data set)

Purdue University Airport       81.4       0.91″  Hottest on record (1954-), driest since 1967

Purdue Ag Farm       80.7       1.05″  Hottest since 1936, driest since 1991

Weather Station    Hottest July    Driest July    July 2012 Avg. Temp    July 2012 Rainfall

West Lafayette       83.7 1936       0.62″ 1936       81.2       0.88″

Crawfordsville       83.1 1936       0.26″ 1974       82.7       0.37″

Logansport       81.1 1901       0.17″ 1940       79.8       2.29″

Rensselaer       83 1936       0.14″ 1936       79.0        0.99″

Wheatfield       80.2 1936       0 1936       78.6       1.03″

Whitestown       82.7 1936       0.10″ 1936       80.7       1.00″

Winamac       81.0 1901       0.15″ 1936       79.5      1.00″

Rochester       80.1 1936       0.06″ 1940       79.8        1.22″

Kokomo       82.9 1921       0.17″ 1901       79.5       2.90″

COMPARING SUMMER 2012 TO SUMMER 1988

 


Isolated Storms As Upper Trough Skims By

July 27th, 2012 at 3:46 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Isolated storms continue to work through as that upper trough skims by.  Isolated severe wind & hail threat will remain with any storm.

Numerous scattered storms evolving into line segments/clusters will occur to the east & southeast of our area with widespread severe threat.

Cool air aloft with upper trough skimming by our 88-94 temperatures will create substantial updrafts with any storm that pops, thus still have that isolated severe threat here.

Any storm will be gone by 7 p.m.

STORM REPORTS:

Flora:  Numerous trees & powerlines down around Flora

Flora:  Roof blown off chicken coop


One Change to Friday Forecast………..Disastrous Drought Unchanged or Has Worsened Since Last Week

July 26th, 2012 at 10:27 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Front is approaching with a few showers/storms holding on.  One is headed towards Rochester, the other for Warren County.

I have decided to not confine isolated showers/storms just to Friday morning, but for the afternoon, too.

Reason?  There is an upper trough & a bit of cool pocket aloft pivoting down from Minnesota that will skim by us Friday.

With it getting into the 89-94 range, isolated storms are a good bet Friday (20%) with even an isolated severe hail & wind threat.  Larger severe threat will exist Ohio to the Mid-Atlantic with this trough with a numerous scattered hail- & wind-producing storms evolving into line segments.

However, the overall, drier-than-normal pattern will persist in our area through next week.  The drought disaster continues to worsen.  Scope of drought is beginning to surpass 1956 & move more & more toward the great 1936 drought.  Only 1934 & 1936 were worse than the mid 1950s drought & now the 2012 drought in Indiana.