NOTE: I have had lots of questions regarding the winter forecast. The past three years of winter forecasts, I have started working on it in late August & will do so this year. I hope to have it completed in early to mid September.
NOW TO TONIGHT-NEXT WEEK’S FORECAST…….
Showers & storms are occurring in the “Ring of Fire” in Nebraska, Iowa & Kansas right on the edge of that tremendous heat wave & upper ridge. Cirrus from these showers & storms is blowing off into our area.
It is this “Ring of Fire” on the edge of 105-110* St. Louis & westward (115* Oklahoma) next week that will allow storm clusters to flirt with us. It is too early to determine which ones will really affect us & which ones will not & which ones will be smaller & less substantial. I think they will be wobbly clusters in the ring with hits & misses for us. 30% pops will do for a good chunk of the week.
In terms of heat, I still think it is quite reasonable to think that the heat wave will make a bulge eastward & give us a couple really hot days in the 90s to 100. Otherwise, it is 90s all week.
RAINFALL DEFICIENCES…….DROUGHT DISCUSSION………
Any rain helps, but we are 6-14″ below normal area-wide with those +12″ deficiences in our southern counties. At WLFI, we are 9.60″ below normal, rainfall-wise, for 2012 as of July 28.
You may wetten the soil with a 0.75″ rain, for example, & that rain would, on average, soak about 4-5″ into the ground. On average, a 1″ rain soaks in 6″ into the soil. However, our deficits are long, long term with significant reductions in moisture deep into the top & subsoils & then into the water table. One can see that with river, lake, bog, marsh & stream/river levels. Frequent, sustained substantial to significant rainfall events over several months will be needed to re-charge subsoil moisture & replenish groundwater & river/streams.
Wet years in 2008 & 2009 have helped & little in the groundwater & subsoil drought. Without those very wet years, this hydrologic drought could be even worse.