Wave of rain is passing through the area now, but will depart over the next few hours.
Storms are blossoming to our west & are severe.
I am thinking these will tend to congeal into a broken, not solid, cluster of showers & storms (with some additional scattered showers & t’storms forming in Illinois), then pass through our area Friday morning-afternoon before tapering. Coverage may peak at 60%, but thinking 45% coverage will be average, so this will not be a solid shield of rain & storms.
Tapering in our area, these will pull away as the warm front lifts northward. At this point, warm, humid, air will surge in with temperatures rising into the 60s & even 70s in the viewing area. Given impressive low-level shear with the warm front & a surface low to our northwest aiding in turning of the wind with height, a few isolated severe storms may pop. The threat would be large hail (1-1.75″ diameter) & isolated tornadoes.
Time frame for the threat of the isolated supercellular-type t’storms would be 2 p.m.-6 p.m.
It still appears the front will slip south of the area Friday night, chilling it down into the 40s with some fog.
Saturday is tricky, but right now it appears the northeast counties may struggle to even get to 60 with 77 in our southwest as the front moves back north & stalls.