Below is the 2010-11 winter through summer outlook.  I finished this on September 7.  As of September 25, all of the factors that I examined, which govern my predictions, are still in place.  La Nina continues to strengthen in the Pacific, which, in combination with all other factors, looks to play a substantial in the winter-spring-summer regime.

You can see how I expect our seasons to develop through summer 2011. 

I will be out all weekend, but will return & have a new blog entry Sunday evening.

-Chad

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Overall:  Winter 2010-11 Colder & Snowier Than Normal with a Sluggish Start to Spring, Earlier Start to Severe Weather Season & the Potential of Areas of Drought Next Summer

Reasons:  La Nina Modoki will promote wetness & above-normal snowfall.  A still lackluster solar output (but more than last winter) support will promote a negative NAO & AO & thus, frequent potent cold snaps with a sluggish start to spring.  PDO, PNA & Madden-Julian Oscillation will help support wetter-than-normal conditions.  La Nina Modoki will support early spring severe weather events in our area.  Up-swing in Arctic ice & snowpack will only promote the Arctic air plunges in winter-early spring.  El Nino moderated the effects of everything working towards a very cold winter last year.  We will not have El Nino’s benefits this year, while other factors point to cold weather.  This winter’s pattern exhibits overall similarity to the winters of 1973-74, 1974-75, 1988-89, 1989-90 & 1999-00.

No “historical” BIG, BIG snows or true blizzards are anticipated.

OVERALL REGIME NATIONWIDE:

Remainder of September:

Temperatures will average above-normal (normal mid 70s/near 50).  The active tropics will promote above-normal rainfall (normal Sept. 10-30: 2.00″).  Monthly rainfall looks to total around 3″, on average, for the viewing area.

TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION & SNOWFALL NUMBERS ARE MEANT TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA, BUT ARE NUMERICALLY AVERAGED FOR THE TIPPECANOE COUNTY AREA.

September
Max Temp	95°	(Has Already Occurred)
Min Temp	43°	(Has Not Occurred Yet)
Precip.	3.02″
Snowfall	0

October: 

Temperatures look to be largely above-normal.  The active tropics & a series of fall cold fronts will bring above-normal rainfall to the area.  I do not anticipate any snowfall.  There is a rather high probability of a late October severe weather event via a fast-moving, narrow squall line with a damaging wind threat.  I anticipate the first patchy frost in our northern & northeastern counties to start October, a widespread light frost (34-37 degrees) largely our northern counties around October 9 & in the central & south around October 13.  The first freeze is likely around October 21 area-wide.

October
Max Temp	84°
Min Temp	27°
Precip.	4.00″
Snowfall	0

November:

The first hard freeze (25 or less) is likely to welcome November, but a quick return to mild to warm weather may bring a severe weather event in the first 10 days of November.  Above-normal temperatures are likely until mid-month when seasonably cold air will arrive.  Overall, temperatures will average slightly-above normal.  I believe the first snowflakes will occur in mid-November.  I do not anticipate anything more than a dusting of snow in November overall.  Rainfall will be above-normal, with much of it falling in the first half of the month.  Some areas of flooding are possible in during this time.

November
Max Temp	73°
Min Temp	18°
Precip.	4.00″
Snowfall	Trace

December:

Some MAJOR lake effect snow events are likely in December, which will affect our northern & northeastern counties.

December will turn sharply colder & windy with many days below normal.  In fact, toward mid-late month, I see many nights in the single digits, perhaps below 0.  The first measurable snow will usher in the snowy, cold month on December 5 at 1-2″  Several 1-3″ snows & a couple 4-8″ snows are a good bet.  I anticipate a white Christmas.  It may end up being the coldest, snowiest December since 2000.  Some of the total December snowfall amounts could be the heaviest since 1989.  Temperatures will be well-below normal, precipitation will be above-normal & snowfall above normal.

December
Max Temp	48°
Min Temp	-8°
Precip.	3.96″
Snowfall	18.8″

January:

We may end December or begin January with an icing event, followed by moderating temperatures with a mild spell & potent thaw ensuing early-mid month.  Melting snow will cause rises in rivers & rainfall mid-month may bring some flooding to the area in places.  The month looks to end cold with several minor 1-2″ snow events & some sleet/icing events.  I don’t really see a big snow in January, but minor events.  The cold start, cold end & mild middle will keep temperatures in the “normal” category.  Despite above-normal rainfall, snowfall will be below-normal.

January
Max Temp	59°
Min Temp	7°
Precip.	4.58″
Snowfall	5.8″

February:

Despite one brief mild spell in late month, February looks long, snowy & very cold with many nights in the single digits to below zero.  I anticipate the biggest snow of the season occurring in early-mid February with 6-10″ area-wide.  Temperatures will be below-normal with precipitation & snowfall above normal.

February
Max Temp	52°
Min Temp	-11°
Precip.	3.61″
Snowfall	12.2″

March:

A spring teaser & early-season severe weather event is possible to start March as “spring fever” arrives.  In fact after several days suddenly in the 60s & 70s in early March, we may anticipate an early spring.  However, unlike March 2010, winter will ROAR back in by mid-late month with the potential of a late season winter storms of ice & snow with much-below normal temperatures.  Temperatures, despite a nice, sudden warm wave & severe weather event to start the month, will average below-normal.  Rainfall & snowfall look above-normal. 

March
Max Temp	79°
Min Temp	7°
Precip.	5.22″
Snowfall	5.0″

April:

Like March, the first of April will warm very quickly with temperatures above-normal.  However, the potential of several severe events certainly seems plausible.  A tornado event is possible.  After a rocky, warm start to April, winter will ROAR back in with highs in the 40s for a few days mid-month with a moderate to hard freeze.  Temperatures will slowly recover, but I doubt the temperature will exceed 80 the entire month & won’t exceed 78 late month.  Severe threat will be a concern late month.  Temperatures will average below-normal.  Rainfall looks above normal with some flooding possible.  A few flurries may fly, but no measurable snowfall is expected.

April
Max Temp	79°
Min Temp	19°
Precip.	4.68″
Snowfall	Trace

May:

May will RAPIDLY turn warm & dry with highs near 90 possible by mid-month.  Farmers may work FEVERISHLY to get the crop out after a wet, rather cool spring.  Unlike Spring 2010, we may not get the crop out in a timely manner & it may be May before alot can get done in the field.  After a dry, very warm first half, the last half looks very stormy with severe events, some tornadoes & fluctuating temperatures.  The potential of late May patchy frost is higher-than-normal.  Rainfall will end below-normal wtih temperatures averaging above normal.

May
Max Temp	94°
Min Temp	36°
Precip.	1.95″
Snowfall	0

Summer 2011:

I do have concerns about drought developing in parts of the Corn Belt.  This may affect all or parts of the area.  There could be some really potent rounds of heat.  In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few locations see 100 degrees for their first time in years.  In terms of a historical drought or a drought like 1988, I am doubtful for our area.  However, some tough periods of very dry, hot weather similar to 2005 & late summer 1999 are possible.

June
Max Temp	98°
Min Temp	48°
Precip.	1.36″
Snowfall	0

July
Max Temp	100°
Min Temp	51°
Precip.	2.95″
Snowfall	0

August
Max Temp	97°
Min Temp	53°
Precip.	1.92″
Snowfall	0