HALLOWEEN FORECAST FOR TRICK-OR-TREATING & GET-TOGETHERS TONIGHT:

TIME/TEMP/SKY-CONDITIONS/WIND

The October 2009 rainfall total will go down as 6.58″ here at WLFI with at least a trace of rain falling on 19 days & MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01″ or more) falling on 16 of 31 days.

That is 61% of the days in October 2009 with some sort of rain (trace) & 52% of the days with measurable rain (>0.01″)!!! Thus, you can see why there are such delays in the corn & soybean harvest, in addition to fall fieldwork.

Comparing my data at WLFI with the official National Weather Service West Lafayette COOP station records, which go back to 1901, this is the wettest October since 2001 & the 5th wettest on record.

October 2001 was the wettest October on record with 8.89″, when rain fell on 13 days.  This included 2.32″ on October 14, 2001.

The wettest October day in the COOP dataset was October 22, 1983 with 3.12″ of rain.  In October 1983, a total of 4.68″ of rain fell for the month.

The last time measurable rain fell on 16 of the 31 days in October was in 1941 in the COOP dataset.  Measurable rainfall was recorded on 15 days at the West Lafayette COOP station October 2009.

TOP 5 WETTEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD

West Lafayette (1901-2009)

Umbrellas, raincoats, water-proof rain boots & sweaters underneath will be necessities this evening at the area football games as temperatures fall, but the rain & wind continues………..

OVERALL STORM SYSTEM:

Strong storm system & cold front will pass over the next 36 hours.

RAIN/T’STORMS:

Thus, rain will pass through tonight-tomorrow-tomorrow night.  Embedded t’storms will occur with much of the rain & a narrow line of storms is possible along the actual cold front.  It would pass between 12 pm & 2 pm.  A few pockets of damaging wind are possible if that narrow line can materialize.  Despite the lack of instability, the line would be formed by the strong front & impressive dynamics aloft.  If it does, it would be embedded in the mass of rain.

Once the front passes between 12 pm & 2 pm, any t’storm threat will end, but a steady rain will continue right through evening & into tomorrow night.

WIND:

Steady non-t’storm winds will gust to 35 mph throughout the day.  The winds will diminish later tomorrow night to gusts to 25 mph.  Winds Saturday will run 15-25 mph, then 10-15 mph by afternoon, but will diminish to 5-10 mph by Trick-or-Treating time.

Temperatures for Trick-or-Treating will run 43-45.

BAROMETRIC PRESSURE:

The pressure will drop to 29.50″ or 999 millibars.  So if you are prone to headaches & arthritis aches from low air pressure, you will notice this system’s passage.

CLICK ON THE IMAGES BELOW FOR A BETTER LOOK:

Wind gusts to 35 mph are possible tomorrow with a turn from the south, to southwest & finally the west by late afternoon.

Narrow squall line may still form on the actual cold front & pass through between 12 pm & 2 pm Friday.  This line would be embedded in the rain.

A few severe wind gusts are possible with this line.

Some of the forecast guidance hints at a gusty line of storms.

The only thing saving us from a significant severe outbreak is the lack of sun & the stabilizing effects of rain.  Despite the lack of instability, the strength of the system & the howling winds aloft support at least an isolated severe threat.

Winds will decrease on Saturday & be much calmer by Trick-or-Treating time.

Rain & Muddy, Waterlogged Football Fields for Friday Night Frenzy………

Rainfall Totals Now-Friday Night:

Patchy dense fog will be the morning commute hazard on this early Thursday.

We are still on track for 1-2″ of rainfall mid-late evening today-Friday. 

However, there appear to be some changes evolving in the forecast tonight-Friday night in regards to the rain & temperatures.

I will have a complete, new blog entry around 4 p.m. today, detailing these changes.  There is a chunk of new data that will arrive by noon & I would like to analyze that prior to next blog entry.

In this way you will get the absolute LATEST INFORMATION.

The John T. Myers pedestrian bridge  has pink lights. The mayors of Lafayette and West Lafayette joined a gathering on the bridge last night to flip the switch. It was the 4th annual bridge lighting ceremony. It is part of National Breast Cancer Awareness Month.

I was honored to emcee the program again this year. I was very impressed with our featured speakers. One was Lester Burch. His wife, Rose, died of breast cancer in December 2007. He told everyone how important support is to the patients and families. YWCA Women’s Cancer program Director Ruth Breyley said she hoped this event would help raise awareness. She said many women don’t get mammograms because there is no family history. Yet, in 90% of new cases the patients do not have a family history.

If you need help getting a mammogram, contact the YWCA.

765-742-4375
1-800-770-9004 (toll free)

ROUND #1:

Steady area of rain will pass through tonight………..

Watch out for AREAS OF FOG with some drizzle later tonight as the rain departs.

Rainfall total of 0.40-0.60″ tonight…………

ROUND #2:

Next round arrives Thursday evening & lasts to midday Friday…………

The rain looks pretty steady & heavy Thursday with embedded storms.

At the present time, it appears a narrow squall line of storms is possible Friday morning.

Severe weather with the line looks definite from far southern Indiana into the southern U.S., but there is some question as to whether how much, will occur with this line along the sharp cold front Friday morning in our area.

After a morning high of 64° on Friday, temperatures will fall through the afternoon.

Rainfall of 1-2″ with Round 2 (0.40″-0.60″ + 1-2″ = 1.4-2.6″ rainfall total for both rounds)

Strong wind gusts of 30-35 mph are likely Friday, Friday night & into at least part of Saturday in our area.

Temperatures look sharply cooler for Halloween with highs on Saturday of 44-49°.

The sunset temperatures for Halloween are in a model projection, which is the second image below.

Winds will have decreased greatly by trick-or-treating time.

Here is model data on the temperatures for Halloween, as well as the steady winds………..

GFS Model Projection Plot for Lafayette, Indiana Friday-Saturday Night……….

BELOW:

Rain overspreading area now………….

It will end overnight tonight.  It still appears a total of 0.40-0.60″ of rain will fall areawide as of latest analysis at 1:36 p.m……………

1.  “NEKI”………………….

Few showers will move through during the very early morning hours……….

This will occur while former Pacific Typhoon”Neki” will be pulled up & gelled with a weather system over the North Pacific………………..

“Neki” remnants will arrive on the Pacific Coast Thursday, while warm, windy weather is pulled up into the WLFI area………….

“Neki” will gell with developing storm system in the Plains & Midwest with its rain & storms (some severe).

As “Neki” combines with this system Friday & Saturday, this low pressure will nearly “bomb-out” with explosive deepening occurring.

This will lead to very strong winds across the Great Lakes.  Gusts at the Purdue game on Saturday against Wisconsin in Madison could approach 50 mph with steady winds at 25 mph.

As for the WLFI area, gusts +30 mph are likely with gusts +40 mph in our northern counties of Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton & northern Miami counties…………..

2.  THE TWO WAVES OF RAIN…………1.4-2.6″ TOTAL RAINFALL WITH SEVERE SQUALL LINE POTENTIAL…………………..

WAVE #1:  Today PM-Early Tomorrow Morning……………..Wave of rain with 0.40-0.60″ amounts is likely……….

WAVE #2:  Strengthening low will bring steady rains & few embedded storms Thursday night-Friday early afternoon.

Rainfall of 1-2″ is likely with this system with a grand total of 1.4-2.6″ possible between the 2 waves.

It appears a narrow squall line of severe t’storms with damaging straight-line winds is possible Friday morning………….STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS NEW INFORMATION ARRIVES……….

Given the low’s rapid strengthening, I believe that as a narrow squall line passes through the Midwest, some morning tornadoes may affect Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee & Mississippi….

This secondary wave’s potential squall line would most likely occur along that very sharp cold front……………

3.  SHARPLY COLDER & WINDY………….

Gusty winds of +30 mph & tumbling temperatures will be the weather story Friday late morning-evening.

The morning high will be 64°, but a fall into the 40s is possible by late afternoon……..

Windy conditions & chilly temperatures  in the 40s are likely Saturday……………

4.  THE COLD WILL RETREAT FOR A RAPID, BUT BRIEF WARM-UP………..

The cold will begin to retreat Sunday……………

A rapid warm-up is possible next Monday-Tuesday, before a rapid cool-down next Wednesday-Friday……..

New blog entry coming up later this evening…………..

Notice in the temperature & rainfall records here at WLFI how 1) it has been one wet October & 2) the temps have been trending warmer recently………….

WLFI TEMPERATURES & RAINFALL RECORDED IN OCTOBER: