The June 20-July 4 Regime

June 19th, 2013 at 10:20 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Temperatures are on the rise with the humidity surging in by late Friday-Saturday.

A large area of hot weather will overspread central & eastern U.S. this weekend as upper ridge builds north & east.

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On periphery of upper ridge storm clusters will evolve Friday-Tuesday.  Many will be severe as clusters will develop amidst or at least on the edge of strong upper-level winds.

Here,it appears a few storms may pop in the afternoon & evening Saturday-Tuesday with 20-30% coverage.  They look disorganized & very hit or miss.

The next potential of organized storms in our area will be Wednesday.  At that point, a piece of those better wind fields aloft will move southeastward & overlay part of a surface cold front moving through our area.  At this point, given highs of 88-93 & dew points of 72-75, some severe weather is possible.  Given unidirectional shear, some damaging straight-line winds will be the main threat.

A bit cooler, less humid air will flow in behind the front.  However, it still appears heat will surge back in with more 90s after this.  Next front behind this one is due in either on July 3 or 4.  If it is on the 3rd, then we will have a nice, cooler, less humid July 4 & storms will be confined to July 3.  If it is July4, it could be hot , humid & stormy around here on the holiday.

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Tropical Storm Barry Forms In the Southern Gulf of Mexico

June 19th, 2013 at 3:31 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Tropical Storm Barry has formed, but is expected to affect Mexico, according to forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

Information on Tropical Storm Barry:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#BARRY

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Record-Breaking Heat Wave In Alaska

June 19th, 2013 at 10:13 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

An unusual & rare early-season heat wave is hitting Alaska with temperatures at incredible levels (as high as 96, officially & state record is 100 set in 1915).

Barrow hit 66 (& has had 6 days in the 50s & 60s in June) on the Arctic Circle & Fairbanks has had an incredible stretch of heat with today being its 5th day in the 80s at the airport (after 86, 88, 86 & 86 June 15, 16, 17 & 18th at the airport ASOS station).  Fairbanks has had 12 days in the 80s since May 27.  Fort Wainwright military installation ASOS (near Fairbanks) actually hit 89 on June 16.

There has also been virtually no rain over a massive area with much of the state under a Red Flag Warning due to high fire danger.

Large, strong, blocking, stagnant upper ridge is reason behind it.

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By Rachel D’Oro

Huffington Post

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — A heat wave hitting Alaska may not rival the blazing heat of Phoenix or Las Vegas, but to residents of the 49th state, the days of hot weather feel like a stifling oven — or a tropical paradise.

With temperatures topping 80 degrees in Anchorage, and higher in other parts of the state, people have been sweltering in a place where few homes have air conditioning.

They’re sunbathing and swimming at local lakes, hosing down their dogs and cleaning out supplies of fans in at least one local hardware store. Mid-June normally brings high temperatures in the 60s in Anchorage, and just a month ago, it was still snowing.

The weather feels like anywhere but Alaska to 18-year-old Jordan Rollison, who was sunbathing with three friends and several hundred others lolling at the beach of Anchorage’s Goose Lake.

“I love it, I love it,” Rollison said. “I’ve never seen a summer like this, ever.”

State health officials even took the unusual step of posting a Facebook message reminding people to slather on the sunscreen.

Some people aren’t so thrilled, complaining that it’s just too hot.

“It’s almost unbearable to me,” said Lorraine Roehl, who has lived in Anchorage for two years after moving here from the community of Sand Point in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. “I don’t like being hot. I’m used to cool ocean breeze.”

On Tuesday, the official afternoon high in Anchorage was 81 degrees, breaking the city’s record of 80 set in 1926 for that date.

Other smaller communities throughout a wide swath of the state are seeing even higher temperatures.

All-time highs were recorded elsewhere, including 96 degrees on Monday 80 miles to the north in the small community of Talkeetna, purported to be the inspiration for the town in the TV series, “Northern Exposure” and the last stop for climbers heading to Mount McKinley, North America’s tallest mountain. One unofficial reading taken at a lodge near Talkeetna even measured 98 degrees, which would tie the highest undisputed temperature recorded in Alaska.

That record was set in 1969, according to Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the online forecasting service Weather Underground.

“This is the hottest heat wave in Alaska since ’69,” he said. “You’re way, way from normal.”

It’s also been really hot for a while. The city had six days over 70 degrees, then hit a high of 68 last Thursday, followed by five more days of 70-plus.

The city’s record of consecutive days with temperatures of 70 or above was 13 days recorded in 1953, said Eddie Zingone, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service who has lived in the Anchorage area for 17 years.

The heat wave also comes after a few cooler summers — the last time it officially hit the 80 mark in Anchorage was 2009. Plus, Tuesday marked exactly one month that the city’s last snow of the season fell, said Zingone, who has lived in Anchorage for 18 years.

“Within a month you have that big of a change, it definitely seems very, very hot,” he said. “It was a very quick warm-up.”

With the heat comes an invasion of mosquitoes many are calling the worst they’ve ever seen. At the True Value Hardware store, people have grabbed up five times the usual amount of mosquito warfare supplies, said store owner Tim Craig. The store shelves also are bare of fans, which is unusual, he said.

“Those are two hot items, so to speak,” he said.

Greg Wilkinson, a spokesman with the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, said it’s gotten up to 84 degrees at his home in the Anchorage suburb of Eagle River, where a tall glass front lets the sunlight filter through.

“And that’s with all the windows open and a fan going,” he said. “We’re just not used to it. Our homes aren’t built for it.”

Love or hate the unusual heat, it’ll all be over soon.

Weather forecasters say a high pressure system that has locked the region in clear skies and baking temperatures has shifted and Wednesday should be the start of a cooling trend, although slightly lower temperatures in the 70s are still expected to loiter into the weekend.


Cam’s Weather Vlog for 06/19/13

June 19th, 2013 at 9:24 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WLFI Video Blog Entry June 19, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

High pressure centralized just north of the Great Lakes this morning will track southeastward today all the while keeping skies over the viewing area crystal clear. We’re looking at an absolutely beautiful ahead with afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s and low 80s. That area of higher pressure will settle over New England as the day comes to an end, though its influence will still be felt as far west as Indiana. With the high far off to our east by tomorrow our easterly winds will shift southward warming us up into the mid to low 80s. That will kick off a warming trend expected to last into the weekend as afternoon high temperatures approach 90°. As temperatures climbs, so will our chances for rain. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will arrive late Saturday night and continue into the beginning of the next work week.


Couple Showers/T’Showers, Rainbows & More Widespread Storms to Our South

June 18th, 2013 at 9:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After a couple of showers & t’showers in the viewing area, storms over the past couple of hours have been paralelling I-74 from southern Vermillion to Parke & Putnam counties.

Rain did produce a beautiful double rainbow in Remington (pic taken by Mary Tyler):

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Even these will pull away with time & we are looking at skies going mostly clear to clear tonight (if it hasn’t done so at your place yet).

 


Few Storms Still Possible

June 18th, 2013 at 2:56 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A few storms are still possible this afternoon-evening as vort max approaches & pivots through with mid-level cool pocket (shortwave) & a weak surface cold front. 

Isolated severe storm is possible with hail & wind, given the cold air aloft & layer of dry air that may enhance a gusty downdraft.

It still appears with 20-30% coverage, many of you will stay dry with just the view of some towering cumulus/cumulonimbi around from distant storms.

Better potential of a bit more widespread storm coverage & better potential of multiple severe reports will lay along & south of I-70 in Indiana & I-72/74 in Illinois.

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Today

June 18th, 2013 at 11:49 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

For part of the viewing area today will be slightly warmer than anticipated.  Temperatures in the north look right on target for projected highs in the upper 70s to 80, but temperatures are already in the 80s in the south (forecast 82-84), so a tweak upward is needed to 84-88.

At 1 p.m. it is already 80.6 at WLFI with a dew point of 62.

ADI Map II

Weak surface cold front, shortwave & weak vort max will pop a few widely-scattered showers/storms in the area today.

Coverage will only peak at 20-30%, so many of you will stay dry.  However, I would not rule out an isolated severe hail/wind producer given the cold pocket upstairs & a dry layer that may enhance a couple gusts.

Any showers/storms will exit this evening & crisp, cool conditions with clearing skies will move in.  Low temperatures are headed for 53-59 with 77-83 tomorrow.

The slightly better coverage & severe potential will run along & south of I-70, where surface instability will be greater.

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Cam’s Weather Vlog for 06/18/13

June 18th, 2013 at 11:26 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

WLFI Video Blog Entry June 18, 2013

Forecast Discussion:

Another weak frontal system will pass through the Midwest later today. While initial forecasts had us receiving some isolated rainfall today, the latest models keep things dry across west central Indiana through the remainder of the current work week. Afternoon highs today will be around 6° cooler than yesterday’s as we hit 82° in Lafayette. Higher pressure will begin to filter into the Midwest by this evening effectively clearing out any remaining upper level moisture. We’re looking at a sunny and cooler Wednesday ahead with afternoon high temperatures topping out right around 79°, but as that high kicks eastward, our northerly winds will shift. Afternoon highs will bounce back into the low 80s by Thursday and some of us may near 90° on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Saturday along with some warmer temperatures. We’ll hit 89° that day here in the Star City before cracking 90° on Sunday with more chances for scattered rainfall.


Large Complex of Rain & Storms (MCS) to Our South Makes for Beautiful Sunset

June 17th, 2013 at 9:59 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We had a beautiful sunset over much of the viewing area tonight.  Ryan Ford took the first pic on the southside of Lafayette.  This was the underbelly of a large complex of rain & storms over Missouri, southern Illinois, Indiana & Kentucky that brought spotty wind damage & very heavy rainfall of up to 4″ with areas of flash flooding.

The underbelly is the massive altostratus deck fanning out over the region as the tops of those storms.  Also present on the altostratus MCS underbelly was diffuse mamma, illuminated by the setting sun.

Weak cold front sliding in from the north (which brought [with shortwave] severe weather to Wisconsin & Michigan today) may bring a few isolated showers & t’storms tonight.

A secondary weak cold front may bring a few showers & t’storms to the area tomorrow.  An isolated severe hailer/wind producer will be possible.

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Frequency of 90 Degrees or More Since 2009

June 17th, 2013 at 3:45 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

So far in 2013, we have had only 1 day at or above 90 at WLFI.  This contrasts with already 9 last year at this time, 8 in 2011 & 5 in 2010. 

In 2009, we only had 1 single +90 day up to this time & ended up with just 7 instances of +90 for the year.  6 of those were in August with NO occurrence of 90 in July.

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