Memorable Christmas Weather

December 19th, 2014 at 2:23 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

More soon…………


Some Snow & Freezing Drizzle In the Forecast (But Also Rain with Quick Warm-Up)

December 19th, 2014 at 1:25 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

SATURDAY-SUNDAY…………….

I still think a few scattered snow showers are a good bet Saturday.  If there is any accumulation, it would be a dusting.

Saturday, I still think some freezing drizzle could develop.  This could lead to slick spots on roads.

Gray, rather foggy Sunday may occur as warm air overrides the cold ground with highs near 40.

MONDAY-TUESDAY……………

Monday looks gray, foggy, drizzly & rather showery with 45-50 with brisk southwest winds.

It looks murky, gray & showery Tuesday.  In fact, they look more widespread than Monday with highs of 45-50.  Right now, it looks like 0.50-0.80″ may fall Monday-Tuesday.

CHRISTMAS EVE-CHRISTMAS DAY………..

Snow showers are still likely Wednesday with strong winds (gusts to 40 mph) to the northwest.  Up to 1″ may accumulate.  With the strong winds, it will blow & drift around, too.

Christmas Day looks dry & partly to mostly cloudy, but windy with northwest winds to 40 mph.

The day after Christmas, there is going to be widespread snowfall Missouri & Iowa to Nebraska.  This system could bring snowfall that night or a couple of days after Christmas.  Details including timing & amounts are still blurry at best, but trends suggest a 1-2″ snow with this one.

 


Several Interesting Things Noted In Latest Data

December 18th, 2014 at 10:50 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

With mostly cloudy skies, highs in the lower 30s are likely for Friday with 20s Friday night.

I still like 20-25% POPs for Saturday with a few snow showers with 30s.

Temperature will likely level off near 30 Saturday night & I would not be surprised to actually see a little bit of patchy freezing drizzle as warm air advection gets underway.  We may even rise to near 32 by Sunday morning.

Sunday looks mostly cloudy & much warmer with highs of 38-45 as plume of warm air surges in.

Some scattered showers are likely Monday with 45-50 with showers & 45-50 Tuesday.

Snow showers are likely with 1″ or less of accumulation with 30s & strong northwest winds to 40 mph.

Christmas currently looks dry with any snow showers exiting & highs in the 20s with strong northwest winds to 40 mph at times.

Christmas night-day after Christmas does look like snow, but accumulations are unclear.  Though confidence is low on exact amount, I think a 1-2″ snow may occur with heavier totals west of our area.  This is based on all of the data & evidence I have to make that call at the moment.

All trends point to cold weather December 27-30 with highs near 20 to into the 20s with lows in the single digits to lower teens.

Stay tuned for the latest updates as new data arrives.


Latest Detailed Outlook Through Christmas

December 18th, 2014 at 4:37 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TONIGHT-FRIDAY…………

We have had some scattered snow showers today & a few of you have gotten a dusting.  Any snow showers/flurries will exit this evening.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy tonight with 20s, then mostly cloudy skies & 30s tomorrow.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY…………..

With mostly cloudy skies, a few snow showers & flurries are possible Saturday with highs in the 30s.

Sundays look dry & mostly cloudy with 30s & lows in the upper 20s.

MONDAY-TUESDAY…………..

It does look like a brief surge of warmth Monday Tuesday with highs near 40 Monday 45 (50 south?) & some scattered showers are likely as clipper dives southeastward.

CHRISTMAS EVE-CHRISTMAS DAY-CHRISTMAS NIGHT-FRIDAY

As clipper winds up over the Great Lakes, scattered, wind-driven snow showers will pass Tuesday night-Christmas Eve.  1″ or less of accumulation looks likely.  Northwest winds may gust to 40 mph, though, with highs in the 20s & lows in the teens.

Right now, Christmas Day looks dry, windy & cold with highs in the 20s, HOWEVER, there will likely be accumulating snowfall from western Illinois to Nebraska with clipper.

It is unclear how much of an effect this system will have on us Christmas night-Friday.  It COULD bring accumulating snowfall.  A more focused forecast will develop over the next few days as better data arrives.

BEYOND FRIDAY………….

Colder trend looks to settle in after Christmas with highs below normal in the 20s with lows in 10-13 range.  Some places may even drop to the single digits.

 


Up to 6″ Snow Southwest of Here…..Few Snow Showers Possible Here Today

December 18th, 2014 at 10:25 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Some snow showers are hanging on just long enough to make it into eastern Illinois.

These will move into our area noon & onward.  Coverage will only run around 20-25%, as not all of the snow on radar is reaching the ground, however, some of it will.  Any accumulation will be patchy & only amount to a dusting.

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Up to 6″ of snowfall has been reported in Kansas & 5″ in Missouri.  Many places reported 3 & 4″.  The two intense bands had the 5.5-6″ amounts.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
908 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SE LINCOLN            39.03N 98.14W
12/18/2014  M6.0 INCH        LINCOLN            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER. SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.
0859 AM     SNOW             KANSAS CITY             39.10N 94.58W
12/18/2014  M5.0 INCH        JACKSON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT KCMO EOC DOWNTOWN
0700 AM     SNOW             CLAFLIN                 38.52N 98.54W
12/18/2014  M5.5 INCH        BARTON             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER. SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.
0830 AM     SNOW             LAWSON                  39.44N 94.20W
12/18/2014  E4.2 INCH        RAY                MO   PUBLIC
0809 AM     SNOW             DENTON                  39.73N 95.27W
12/18/2014  E4.0 INCH        DONIPHAN           KS   PUBLIC
0809 AM     SNOW             LIBERTY                 39.25N 94.42W
12/18/2014  E4.0 INCH        CLAY               MO   PUBLIC
0809 AM     SNOW             8 NNW KANSAS CITY       39.21N 94.64W
12/18/2014  M3.7 INCH        PLATTE             MO   PUBLIC

            NEAR PLATTE WOODS
0809 AM     SNOW             SMITHVILLE              39.39N 94.58W
12/18/2014  M3.7 INCH        CLAY               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

0900 AM     SNOW             8 SW WAMEGO             39.11N 96.39W
12/18/2014  E5.0 INCH        WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER
0745 AM     SNOW             FRANKFORT               39.71N 96.41W
12/18/2014  M4.0 INCH        MARSHALL           KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION FRANKFORT 0.4 NE /KS-MS-4/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.
0700 AM     SNOW             1 S BURNS               38.08N 96.89W
12/18/2014  M3.2 INCH        BUTLER             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVATION. SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.
0740 AM     SNOW             2 WSW TOPEKA            39.03N 95.71W
12/18/2014  M2.5 INCH        SHAWNEE            KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION TOPEKA 1.2 WSW /KS-SN-20/
            SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS.
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Accumulating Snowfall Southwest of Our Area

December 17th, 2014 at 10:08 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Most models completely dry up absolutely all of the snow over Missouri to Illinois tomorrow as it moves eastward.  This will partially be the case as high pressure acts as a wall to this system & any movement northeastward.

However, I would not be surprised if at least some snow showers last long enough to get in here.  I still like 20% POPs for tomorrow for snow showers with any accumulation being less than 1″.  We will monitor this, as if the snowfall holds together even better, then POPs would need to be increased.

Right now, some very intense banding of snowfall is occurring in east-central Kansas & over south-central Missouri with locally 1-2″ per hour rates.

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Several Systems Of Note Through Christmas

December 17th, 2014 at 1:49 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TONIGHT-THURSDAY……………….

A general 1.5-4″ snowfall is likely across Kansas, Missouri & western Illinois tonight-Thursday.  However, I think two main band of intense band will dump 4-6″.  One is likely in Kansas, the other in central Missouri.  Band #1 in Kansas will largely be in frontagenetical forcing at first, then become a deformation zone of intense snowfall.  Band #2 will be a focus of intense frontagenetical banding in Missouri.  This is also where baroclinically-induced, nocturnal low-level jet will forcing moisture & bits of elevated instability (which will enhance the snowfall).

Now, this system will encounter wall of surface high pressue in our area Thursday afternoon & rapidly fall apart.  However, there are subtle model indicators that suggest some scattered snow showers may hang on just long enough to make it into our area later Thursday with perhaps a dusting in places.  Confidence is not high on that, but is such that 20% POP is warranted & inclusion of a “less than 1″” potential zone painted.

NWS has Winter Weather Advisories up in these areas & they may put out localized Winter Storm Warnings eventually in those zones of greatest forcing.

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SATURDAY…………..

Second system may spread a 1-2″ band near the Ohio River Saturday.  If we would happen to get anything from that, it would be very light.  We will continue to monitor.

I still  have 20% POP for Saturday for any snow shower, due to some degree of uncertainty.

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NEAR CHRISTMAS………….& BEYOND……………

Still looks like colder regime around Christmas.  We will have to keep an eye on third system that will bring accumulating snow to parts of the Rockies & Plains.  Potential is still there for snow around Christmas.

Christmas Day still looks windy & cold with highs in the 20s & lows in the 10-15 range.

There is some earmark of a brief, sharp warm-up of 40s to perhaps 50 for like one day, but I do not know whether that is before New Year’s.  Timing is blurry at best, but there is like one day of intense warm air advection with quick warm-up.  I hope to pin the timing down in upcoming posts.

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Latest Outlook to January 1

December 16th, 2014 at 11:05 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Cold air got in just before last of the drizzle ended, leading to period of grainy light snow.  Some of you may have gotten a powdered sugar dusting.

Lots of clouds will dominate the rest of the week & into the weekend with highs in the 30s.

There are three snow systems to watch to December 26.

System #1 will bring 2-4″ of snowfall to parts of eastern Kansas & Missouri & perhaps 1″ as far east as central Illinois Thursday.

Right now, it looks like this system will die out rapidly as it encounters strong high pressure over our area.

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System #2 will likely track farther south with band of snowfall perhaps along the Ohio River to the Northeast.  Here, it may bring a few snow showers Saturday.  If there is any accumulation it would be less than 1″.

System #3 looks to dive out of the front range & bring scattered rain/snow to our area initially around next Tuesday.

Widespread accumulating snowfall is possible Colorado to Missouri.  There is uncertainty regarding how much influence it will have here, but some data suggests some accumulating snowfall just before/around Christmas.

It still looks like a cold Christmas with highs only in the 20s & lows of 10-15.

There are signs of a brief, sharp warm-up near New Year’s to 40s, perhaps 50.  However, confidence is not high on that, still.

 

 

 


Drizzle Changing to Snow Grains Before Exiting

December 16th, 2014 at 10:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Drizzle is hanging on long enough to change to snow grains as of 10 p.m. as temperatures drop aloft & at the surface before the drizzle exits.  A light dusting is possible.  It is still all drizzle in the far northeast.  Watch for slick spots.

Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to around 30.

With cloudy to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow, a few flurries are possible.  Highs will run near 36.

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Falling Temperatures………..Latest Outlook to Christmas

December 16th, 2014 at 2:37 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Of the rainfall totals I have, totals vary from 0.13″ to 0.45″ across the viewing area as of 3 p.m.

Lowest total is 0.13″ at Kentland & highest, 0.45″ near Logansport (though the airport AWOS has only measured 0.25″).

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Spotty showers/drizzle are possible into the evening, though the widespread showers/drizzle will tend to gradually exit.  Temperatures are falling with windy conditions (gusts to 31 mph at times).

As of 3 p.m., it is 39 at the station after a high temperature earlier at 47 as the colder air actually wraps in from the southwest around the low.

Any rain will exit by later this evening & the winds will decrease after 9 p.m.

Models want to clear skies out tomorrow & Thursday, but I am highly doubtful.  I think mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will be with us (low stratus) tomorrow-Saturday.

Although I cannot rule out a few breaks perhaps here & there tomorrow-Friday, but I highly doubt we will see much sunshine until next week.  I hope this changes!

Highs will run in the mid 30s with lows in the mid to upper 20s the rest of the week.  Tomorrow, west-northwest wind will run 10-15 mph, but the winds Thursday-Friday look light at just 5-10 mph from the west & northwest, before turning north & northeasterly Friday night.

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In terms of snowfall potential by Saturday, data still suggests the main area of accumulation will be southwest of our area.

One system will tend to dump its load in Kansas & Missouri to western Illinois, then  slowly weaken as it bumps into wall of high pressure, while the second system will tend to curve around to the south & produce most of its snow from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast.  Up to 9″ may fall in New England with 4-6″ over parts of Pennsylvania & New York State possible.

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Now, there is a third system to monitor for passage here/nearby closer to Christmas.  A band of accumulating snowfall is likely with it, but like the Friday-Saturday systems, it is hard to tell who will get the White Christmas.

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