4:02 P.M. Update

August 28th, 2014 at 3:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Front will move back north with potential of some scattered showers/storms tonight, followed by a tropical, muggy, hot Friday with scattered storms.  Looks like they will be most widespread late in the day with potential of a semi-organized line/band if a cold pool can develop.  Kept isolated severe in forecast.

Still looks like round Saturday morning & then more Saturday noon-early afternoon with actual surface cold front.

Trends show front south of us Sunday, but a northerly migration Monday may pop isolated storms.  Kept isolated storms in for Tuesday, then better storm coverage Wednesday-Friday as front stalls over area. 

Data still suggests a northward migration of the the front, which will bathe us in pretty unseasonable heat & humidity as trough drops into Pacific Northwest.

This heat/humidity may hang on for several days before strong upper trough & surface cold front sweep through around September 10 & usher in much cooler weather with some overnight lows potentially in the 40s.

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Latest On the Time Frame of the Next Threat of Showers & T’Storms

August 28th, 2014 at 1:26 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It was a bit cooler this than it has been for the past several mornings with lows of 59-65.

DMA Map II

Front is south of us today, but beginning to work back north as surface flow goes from due north to east in our area, ceasing the cooler lake breeze.

Also surface low in Nebraska is tending to pull front back north.

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Isolated showers/t’storms are possible tonight as front lifts through the area, followed by scattered t’storms tomorrow.

More widespread showers & t’storms are possible Friday evening as storms may actually gell into a line.  Isolated severe gust/hail is possible.

Once that passes, a secondary wave of showers & t’storms may pass Saturday morning.

It still looks like the actual surface cold front will not come through centered near around midday to early afternoon with a broken line of showers & t’storms.

Saturday night looks dry, as does Sunday.  Lows will run near 62 Saturday night & highs will likely reach 83 Sunday.

Some data suggests front will shoot back north early & stall over area Monday-Tuesday with multiple rounds of showers & t’storms.  The trend has been for the front to do this Wednesday-Thursday, not Monday-Tuesday.

For now, we will monitor & get a few model run under the belt before tweaking any.

With the upper jet so far north & this sort of stagnant pattern, we are driven by more small-scale factors such as weak fronts, outflow boundaries, MCVs, etc., than larger-scale weather systems.

The agreement is that the front will eventually move back way north & bath us in July-like weather September 5-9.

Still looks like a nice cool-down September 10-13.  Highs will likely be 69-75 with lows at 46-50.


10:20 P.M. Update

August 27th, 2014 at 10:04 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Due north wind north of our weak front has brought a nice lake breeze front into the area tonight.  The humidity has dropped & the cooler air has come in!

It is currently 72 at the station, but the dew point is 61!

The weak front is just south of the viewing area & has not made movement back north this evening, owing to lake breeze front.  Regardless, it is still a bit muggy in the south with 75 at Crawfordsville with a dew point of 69.

South of the front, Terre Haute is at 78 with a dew point of 71.

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With front likely staying south of our area tonight with re-inforcement of lake front, kept it 100% dry with lows of around 60 to 65.  Patchy dense fog is also possible.

I went for dry Thursday with partly cloudy skies & highs of 83-88 with front likely staying just south of the area.  It will move through area tomorrow night with a few storms possible.

Some scattered storms with 35% coverage are definitely warranted for Friday, but data still suggest a wave of more widespread showers/storms (perhaps an evolving line with 50% coverage) Friday evening.  Given the high instability & marginal shear, isolated severe wind/hail is possible.  Another wave of showers & storms is possible Saturday morning (45%).

Actual surface cold front may pass around midday Saturday with a line of showers & storms (45%).

We will continue monitor.


I Will Be On 5-6:30 P.M. Today…………….4:15 P.M. Update

August 27th, 2014 at 4:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I will be on the blog today 5-6:30 p.m. if any of you have questions, like Travis or Matthew had today.  I will be able to give immediate responses.

Thank you everyone & thank you always for you valuable rain & severe weather reports, as well as your pictures!  They are extremely helpful & much appreciated!

-Chad

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Weak front sliding southward has taken the edge off the temperatures & humidity a hair today.

At the station, I have 85, but the dew point is down to 68.  This is still humid, but not like the 77-degree dew point of yesterday & days prior.

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Isolated shower/t’storm is still possible south of 26 this evening as weak front begins to slowly work back northward.

This isolated rainfall potential will spread through the entire viewing area from south to north tonight-Thursday morning as that weak front continues to lift back north as a warm front.

Some more patchy dense fog is also possible.

Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

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2014 Severe Weather Events

August 27th, 2014 at 3:27 pm by under Uncategorized

FEBRUARY 20, 2014 SEVERE EVENT

A QLCS squall line raced through largely our southern half on February 20 with damaging straight-line winds & one confirmed tornado.

Additionally, rapid snow melt from much warmer weather & rainfall caused flooding & significant ice jams on rivers & streams.

An ice jam on the Eel River in Cass County caused flooding with a few home evacuations.  Ice jam on Wildcat Creek has also caused back-up flooding, resulting in several home evacuations.

The Wabash had a 7-mile long ice jam in Carroll & Cass counties, backing up floodwater further in to Cass County.

Pipestone Creek on the Cass/Miami line had an ice jam with back-up flooding being reported.

Event images & NWS tornado survey (note: tornado is not on severe storm reports map, as it was confirmed after this map was made).

Tornado was a part of LEWP in the line with one signature southeast & east of Crawfordsville & another north of Crawfordsville.  The one southeast & east of Crawfordsville produced the tornado.

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Track is based on radar data & NWS information:

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FGIH

IHBADI Map II

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STORM REPORTS:

Hillsboro:  Small limbs down & shingles off home

Crawfordsville:  M61 mph

Tipton:  E65 mph

Atlanta:  M67 mph

Frankfort:  Semi overturned, leaking propane.  I-65 closed.

Northeast of Frankfort:  5 minutes of gusts of 50-52 mph.

Frankfort:  M55 mph

Kokomo:  M54 mph

Attica:  M50 mph

Covington:  M52 mph

Thorntown:  M62 mph

Burlington:  M51 mph

Logansport:  M58 mph

Montgomery County:  Several reports of shingles blown off homes.

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MAY 21, 2014 SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL & MICROBURST

The second severe weather event of the year struck today with hail to baseball size & one significant microburst.

Overnight, supercell/multi-cells gelled into an MCS that clipper our north/northeast.  Marble hail & gusty winds were reported in the morning in Cass, Miami counties.

The outflow boundary from these storms set up in the heart of the viewing area.  With nice northwest flow at mid & upper levels along with a very unstable, hot, juicy environment, supercells & multi-cells popped rapidly.  The high CAPE & steep lapse rates with shear from the stronger flow aloft made for lots of hail & a few minor to significant microbursts.

Storms also popped on the actual surface cold front.  As another core of stronger mid- & upper-flow helped to ignite these storms.

Eventually the cold front merged with the outflow boundary in the evening & as that even stronger flow arrived we had billiard ball to baseball hail in southeast Fountain & southwest Montgomery counties this evening.  Hail of up to softball size fell in eastern Illinois.

Tree limbs were reportedly downed near Kingman & Covington with 50 & 53 mph gusts.  An intense microburst around Lebanon caused tree damage & even toppled many large trees (one 3′ in diameter at breast height).  Power poles & line were also down.  In this 1.5- to 2-mile oval, winds may have gusted 70 to perhaps 75 mph.

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Images of the event:

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Ryan Harber (West Lafayette):  Storm over Boone County as seen from West Lafayette…………..

John Mahoney (West of Frankfort on I-65):  Wall cloud on back side of supercell that produced 1.75″ hail & 50 mph gust in Clinton County……………..

Autumn McGregor (South of Pine Village):  Underbelly of severe storms over Vermillion & Parke counties this evening, showing the mammatus…………………….

Beth Mantle (Attica):  Underbelly of storm from Parke County showing mammatus……………………

Lyndsey Gayler (West Point):  Mammatus over West Point…………….

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Other pics:

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JUNE 18, 2014 LINE OF STORMS

A line of storms with a relatively narrow swath of wind damage passed through the area in the afternoon.  These overturned the airmass & gutted a lot of the surface instability for storms.  These storms did struggle due to capping (CINH) issues nudging in from Plains/western Corn Belt upper ridge.

However, central Illinois missed the storms & was highly-unstable, hot & humid in the evening with surface CAPE to 4500 J/kg.  This advected back in & although it was more elevated instability at first, the storms & instability became increasingly surface-based with time.  That, in combination with good downdraft CAPE & lake breeze front & a slightly-bowing line of storms passed through in the evening in the “Ring of Fire” or periphery of Plains & western Corn Belt upper ridging, capping & heat.

STORM REPORTS:

East of Morocco:  Powerlines down

East of Morocco:  E70 mph

Lake Village:  E60 mph

Northern Newton County:  Powerlines down & on fire

North of West Lafayette:  E60 mph

WLFI-TV:  M55 mph

Lake Cicott:  Trees down

White County:  Multiple trees down countywide

Burlington:  M60 mph

Kokomo:  M64 mph

Delphi:  Trees down on Tecumseh Bend Road

Peru:  Tree down on power lines

Northeast of Thorntown:  M51 mph (Report Missing In First Image)

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Images of the event:

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Autumn McGregor:  Near Pine Village

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Pam Leonard:  Monticello

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JUNE 30-JULY 1, 2014: TWO DERECHOS

A long-lived, long-track derecho raked areas just north of the viewing area during the late evening of Tuesday, June 30.  This did prompt Severe T’Storm Warning for far northern Jasper County at 9 p.m., but wind stayed just north of the Kankakee River.

Second derecho races east & southeastward, affecting area 11 p.m. to 2 a.m. on a very sultry, juicy night.   WLFI dew point hit 78.  Morocco dew point hit 79!

Storms raced southeastward between though they encountered CINH (capping) with southward progression & began to weaken.

However, they did produce gusts of 45-55 mph, even with weakening.  As they completely collapsed, extensive wind damage occurred in our far southeast & east & then in the Indianapolis area.

Aided by upper trough & ridge-riding shortwave, storms exploded on plume of very high surface CAPE in Illinois & Indiana, which had been capped all afternoon.  Surface CAPE reached 4500-5500 J/kg, which lingered after dusk & supported the severe threat.

Less capping (CINH) & more dynamics, but bit less CAPE brought the most widespread damaging winds to our northern & northwestern counties.

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Winamac Damage (from Betty & Teri):

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NWS Chicago has confirmed one EF1 tornado occurred in the June 30-July 1 derecho in our viewing area.

Embedded in the significant damaging straight-line winds, it appears a tornado (perhaps multiple tornadoes) occurred in northern Jasper County east & northeast of Demotte in an 8-mile path.

Below is image of velocity data as tornado was northeast of Demotte before lifting.  At this point, it was still likely as EF1.  Velocity data still indicated 95 mph winds at beam level about 4.5 miles northeast of Demotte at this time.

A tornado was also confirmed near Lowell.  You can see the signature of it in the second image.

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Tornadoes were confirmed in Kankakee & Will counties in Illinois.  However, extreme straight-line winds to 100 mph hit Morris, Illinois.

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Pics of the tornado damage are courtesy of NWS Chicago:

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TORNADO # 5 IN AND NEAR DEMOTTE INDIANA...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    100-105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  8.0 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   200 YARDS
FATALITIES:             NONE
INJURIES:               NONE

START DATE:             JUNE 30 2014
START TIME:             1049 PM CDT
START LOCATION:         3.3 MILES EAST OF DE MOTTE IN
START LAT/LON:          41.1909/-87.2613

END DATE:               JUNE 30 2014
END TIME:               1056 PM CDT
END LOCATION:           4.9 MILES NORTHEAST OF DE MOTTE IN
END LAT/LON:            41.2240/-87.1138

SURVEY SUMMARY:
A 100-200 YARD SWATH OF CONSISTENT TREE DAMAGE...WITH NUMEROUS
SNAPPED TREES...BEGAN EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DE MOTTE BETWEEN N CR 1150
W AND N CR 1100 W JUST NORTH OF W CR 1200 N. THE DAMAGE CONTINUED
EAST-NORTHEAST JUST TO THE EAST AND THEN THROUGH THE CENTER OF DE
MOTTE NORTH OF 9TH STREET. JUST EAST OF DE MOTTE ALONG ORCHID
STREET...A BARN WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND DOUBLE WIDE
MANUFACTURED HOME EXPERIENCED SOME STRUCTURAL AND/OR ROOF DAMAGE.
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG W CR 1450 N NEAR THE END OF THE DAMAGE
PATH...THERE WERE SNAPPED TREES...WOOD POWER POLES LEANING AND
DAMAGE TO TWO FARMSTEADS. ON ONE...THE DOORS COLLAPSED IN A POLE
BARN. IN ANOTHER POLE BARN...THE WALLS COLLAPSED AFTER THE ROOF
WAS BLOWN OFF. THE DAMAGE IN THIS TORNADO PATH WAS CONSISTENT WITH
MAXIMUM SPEEDS OF 100-105 MPH.

IT CANNOT BE CONCLUSIVELY RULED OUT THAT MORE THAN ONE TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN ALONG THE 8 MILE LONG DAMAGE PATH.

NWS has confirmed that southeast of Lowell to northern Jasper County, straight-line winds of 85-110 mph occurred.

EF1 tornado with winds of 100-105 mph was embedded in the straight-line winds.

Wind damage in Pulaski County consistent with gusts of 60-85 mph.  The northern half of the county was hardest hit with damage similar to that of Marshall County, where winds were up to 85 mph

STORM REPORTS:

M86 mph  Lowell

E85 mph  Wheatfield

E80 mph Northside of Winamac

M70 mph  Morocco

Numerous Trees Down In the Northern Half of Pulaski County

Tree Limbs & Trees Down  Northwest Newton County

Barns & Farms Outbuildings Damaged/Destroyed Near Demotte

Numerous Trees & Powerlines Down In Demotte

Trees Down Near Grissom Air Reserve Base

2 Power Poles Snapped at the Base  Grissom Reserve Base

Trees & Power Lines Down Across Western Boone County

Several Farm Buildings Damaged/Destroyed in Western Boone County.

Power Poles Blown Onto 75 Near Advance

Large Tree Limb Blown Down Along 75 in Advance

M66 mph  Grissom Air Reserve Base

M64 mph  Winamac

Trees Down Near St. Joseph College

Extensive Wind Damage In Winamac:  Trees & Powerlines Down with Structural Damage

M61 mph  Kentland

Tree Limbs & TV Antennas Down In Kentland

E60 mph Ladoga

M59 mph  Fowler

E50 mph Between Attica & West Point

M48 mph  Attica

M45 mph  Rensselaer

M44 mph  Fulton County Airport

M43 mph  White County Airport

M41 mph  WLFI-TV

M40 mph  Northeast of Frankfort

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JULY 14, 2014 SQUALL LINE

With arrival of upper trough & surface cold front, band of multi-cell storms with a couple with embedded supercell features, gelled into a squall line with sporadic strong-severe gusts & some pea hail.

Surface CAPE was a bit less (today 2500 J/kg) than it had been in a few days, but dynamics were stronger with up to 40 kts. of shear, good convergence to form storms & steeper lapse rates.

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Images of the event:

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Josh Raub sent this pic of minor siding damage in Lindbergh Village in West Lafayette.  Two other homes lost shingles.

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Other images of the storm/storm damage:

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AUGUST 21, 2014 CLUSTER TO LINE OF STORMS (WITH LARGE HAILER ON TAIL END)

A cluster of storms quickly developed on the evening of August 21 just northwest of the viewing area at the junction of MCV & outflow boundary from morning MCS, storm quickly blew up in uncapped, highly unstable environment with up to 4500 J/kg of surface CAPE downstream.

The cluster assumed a more linear, organized bow shape with southeastward progression as cold pool developed (rain-cooled air forcing the storms forward & fanning them out into the bowing line).  On its tail end, large hail fell, some of it up to full black walnut size (2.25″ diameter).  Also, a brief, tightly-wound rotation signature was seen.

Precipitable water amounts were very high with dew points in the middle to even upper 70s.  So, torrential rainfall accompanied the storms with a quick 2″ of rainfall in some areas, which resulted in flash flooding.

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Images of the event as we were tracking the storms:

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Damage, Hail & Sky Pics:

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AUGUST 26-27, 2014 MACROBURSTS & LARGE HAIL

August 26

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August 27

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Outlook to September 13

August 27th, 2014 at 11:54 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT……………...

After a few storms & locally-dense fog this morning, we are now partly cloudy & heating up.

Yesterday was the third day at or above 90 at the Purdue Ag Farm & WLFI.  Today, we will not hit 90, but rise into the mid to upper 80s.  It will still be muggy, though.

At WLFI, we have had 7.39″ for August, while the Ag Farm has had 6.99″.  This is well above the normal of 3.68″.  This is in West Lafayette.  The south & southeast sides of Lafayette have been drier.

I like 20% POPs for storms today & tonight south of Route 26 (Kokomo to Lafayette to Pine Village line) with patchy dense fog possible tonight-early Thursday.  I removed any “isolated severe” for today as it won’t be as unstable as the past few days with our weak front settling just south of our area.

Right now, looks as if any storm would be confined to Thursday morning.

Thursday night looks dry.

FRIDAY-MONDAY………………

A few isolated storms are possible Friday (20%), but it look like more widespread storms with isolated severe weather are possible Friday evening-night.  That could even organize into a squall line.

The actual surface cold front does not look to move through until near noon Saturday in the viewing area.  A broken line of t’storms is possible along it, so it is a very close call for the Purdue game at Ross-Ade at this point.  We will monitor, as it is only Wednesday & too early to make an exact call on that.  Sunday & Labor Day currently looks dry (based on latest data) with 80-85.

SEPTEMBER 2-10……………..

After this, the trend will continue to be above-normal temperatures through September 10.  The potential exists for a heat wave with 5 days of +90 for at least part of the area September 5-9.

Rainfall, overall, looks above normal.

We will monitor.

SEPTEMBER 11-13…………….

A strong cold front looks to pass around September 11.  After this, temperatures will cool back to more normal levels.  September 12-13, high may run near 75 with lows near 50.  Dew points during this period look very comfortable in the mid 40s.


10:37 P.M. Update

August 26th, 2014 at 10:35 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Storms moving eastward in Illinois have developed their own cold pool & sagged & raced southward.

These severe storms are currently just south of Springfield.  A few spotty showers have developed on these storms’ outflow boundary now approaching Warren & Benton counties.  Outflow boundary from earlier storms is working back northeastward & eastward.

This said, I prefer to keep 20% POPs in the forecast for the overnight for a few showers & storms given boundaries & weak surface front around.

Also areas of patchy dense fog is likely.

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Updates

August 26th, 2014 at 12:59 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

5:52 p.m.

Patchy light rain is gradually diminishing in our area, but signs of outflow boundary moving back north & northeast & high CAPE migrating back northward are evident in eastern Illinois.

A new t’storm just popped near Champaign on this boundary.

Some scattered t’storms are still possible this evening-tonight with this & with surface cold front slowly sagging through the viewing area.

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5:08 p.m.

Patchy light rain is left in the viewing area, but there are still some cloud-to-ground lightning strikes coming from left-over storm anvils.  You may even have a lightning strike with no rain or just sprinkles.  This can make judging when to go back outside difficult.

The only true t’storm is in southern Montgomery County & one intense storms clipping southwest Fountain County.

It is already heating back up to 86 in our northwest/west with sun.

A few more storms cannot be ruled out for the evening-night with 20-30% coverage as high CAPE from Illinois tries to come back in.

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4:36 p.m.

T’Storm continues to move southeastward through Fountain County.  It is still producing heavy rainfall, but it is not severe.

A gust to 28 mph is possible with it, along with frequent lightning as it approaches southwestern Montgomery County.

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4:10 p.m.

Storms are gusting out & collapsing.

Still, a torrential t’storm is moving through central Fountain County.

Gust front racing out from our storms may produce some gusts of 40-45 mph.

Crawfordsville gusted to 40 mph with the gust front after hitting 94 degrees!  They are now at 73!

We hit 90 or greater at WLFI for the third consecutive day (90 today, 92 yesterday, 90 Sunday).  Bud on the southeastside of Lafayette hit 92 today.

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3:45 p.m.

Clinton County storm is collapsing.

Gust to 50 mph possible north & south of Frankfort before weakening further.

40-45 mph gusts & marble hail possible south of Attica at the moment.

Tree down on the east side of Lafayette.

T’STORM GUSTS (GUSTS 35 MPH OR GREATER) & DAMAGE REPORTS

Tree Limb Fell On Power Lines, Knocking Out Power to Most of Delphi

Part of a Tree Down On a Business In Delphi

Tree Down On East Side of Lafayette

Trees Down In Battle Ground

Limbs Down in the Americus Area

Downed Utility Line Blocking Poland Hill Road Between Teal & Beck Lane

E60 mph  North of Smithson on 43

3 Miles Northwest of Chalmers  E60 mph

4.5 Miles Northeast of Frankfort:  M49 mph

Kentland  M44 mph

White County Airport AWOS  M43 mph

West of Frankfort at I-65 & Route 28  M42 mph

Fowler  M41 mph

Clinton Prairie High School  M40 mph

Purdue University Airport ASOS  M37 mph

Frankfort Municipal Airport AWOS  M36 mph

WLFI-TV  M36 mph

HAIL

1.00″  Southeast of Monticello

0.75″  Southeast of Wolcott

0.50″  Wolcott

0.25″  Hail 10 miles West of Lafayette

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3:29 p.m.

Poland Hill Road is blocked between Teal Road & Beck Lane by downed power line across roadway.

Power is out in Delphi, but should be restored by 5:30 p.m., accordin to Duke Energy.

New warning for eastern Tippecanoe, Clinton, southern Carroll to northern Boone & southwest Howard to northwest Tipton.

Worst of it is in northern/northwestern Clinton.

Western Tipp storm not severe.  Gust 30-40 mph possible with torrential rain, however.

Northern Tipp & central Carroll warning will expire within a minute.

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3:22 p.m.

Limbs are reportedly down in Kentland.  Jim measured just at his house to 44 mph.

Trees down Battle Ground to near Buck Creek.  Limbs down near Americus.

1″ hail reported southwest of Monticello.

0.75″ hail reported near Wolcott & 0.50″ hail in Wolcott.

Up to 1″ hail possible south of Rossville to near Mulberry.  This is headed for Frankfort (if it doesn’t collapse).

Gust to 60 mph possible northwest Clinton/SW Carroll.  This is headed for Frankfort (if it doesn’t collapse).

Brief gust to 50 mph possible NW/W Tippecanoe with perhaps pea hail.

Marble hail possible south of Pence.

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3:05 p.m.

Trees are reportedly down in Battle Ground & near Americus.

Data indicates gusts to 60 mph from those storms.

Hail size has decreased.

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2:45 p.m.

Northern Tippecanoe, Clinton now under Severe T’Storm Warning until 3:30 p.m.  Carroll County is also under Severe T’Storm Warning until 3:30 p.m.

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2:32 p.m.

Looks like perhaps second downburst in White County.  This is occuring in the Monticello area, especially west & southwest of town.

Hail up to quarter size possible in the Monticello/Reynolds to near Chalmers area.

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Dual Pol indicates hail in White County storm.

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2:15 p.m.

There is a likely downburst near Reynolds with hail of up to 1″ in diameter.  The bright reds/green close together indicate quick, sharp burst of wind fanning out.

Gusts of 60 mph likely.

White/Benton warning until 3 p.m.

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2 p.m.

Downburst with quick gust to 60 mph possible north of Remington.  Up to 1″ hail also possible.

Downburst also possible in west-central Benton County with gust 60 mph with up to 1″ hail.

Warnings southern Newton, Jasper, all of Benton.

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12:58 p.m.

Strong t’storms are moving through Cass & Miami counties.  Pea to marble hail & gusts 40-50 mph are possible with torrential rainfall.  Such strength will be brief as they are pulsey.

Other scattered t’storms are popping in Jasper & White counties.

Today, capping at any level is pretty nil, so storms are freely & haphazardly going up.

These will all be pulsey storms.  They tend to pulse up quickly, then collapse.  Largely driven by the high CAPE & weak front boundary, the potential exists for isolated severe gusts (downbursts) &/or hail.

These scattered t’storms will continue to pop through the afternoon & into the evening as front very slowly sags southward.

Otherwise it is one hot, humid day with temperatures already at 90 in some places with the heat index as high as 102.

DMA Map II125

 


Updates

August 25th, 2014 at 5:23 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

11 p.m.

Highs today ranged from 89-93.  The heat index peaked at 109 in the viewing area (109).

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Storms have completely collapsed, other than some thunder/lightning with light rain.

Patchy, locally-dense fog is possible tonight, followed by building cumulus & a few storms tomorrow.  With up to 4500 J/kg of surface CAPE, isolated severe gusts/hail cannot be ruled out.  Highs will run 90-92 with heat indices 99 to 105.

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10:15 p.m.

Storms are weakening & storm on the southside of small cluster is becoming the dominant one in northeastern Parke County.

Gust to 30-35 mph possible in far southwestern Montgomery County before storm completely collapses in that part of Montgomery County.

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Damage examination revealed perhaps two macrobursts with winds up to 65 mph.

Fallen limbs tended to fan out from upstream locations near Buck Creek & north of Dayton.

Some of the worst wind damage was near East Tipp Middle School where whole trees were uprooted & east & southeast of 26/65 interchange where tree damage was considerable.

1-2″ hail was driven by the strong wind, which resulted in vehicle, roof & siding damage.  Heavy foliage damage also occurred to trees, flowers, grass, shrubs & crops.

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9:50 p.m.

Gusts to 51 mph possible north of Hillsboro, east of Harrison Lake & near Graham & Mellott.

This is also where the most-frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes are located & where a core with a 70% chance of pea to marble hail is located.  Potential of severe hail (1″ in diameter) is 0% at the moment.

Storms are sinking more south & southeast, then east & southeast now.

Thinking weakening trend will ensue & the storms on the south side of this mass will become the dominant ones with a turn more south-southeast.

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STORM REPORTS:

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9:37 p.m.

At the moment, strongest gusts appear to be around Harrison Lake & southeast of Mackie in Fountain County with gusts to 50 mph.

I appears that hail core may be developing near Harrison Lake.

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9:20 p.m.

Looks like downburst on east side of Lafayette outskirts.  Preliminary 2 miles in diameter.  Looks like hail accompanied at least part of it with largest stones 2″ in diameter.  Some car, home roof & siding damage occurred.

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As of 9:20 p.m. heavy t’storm has moved back into the viewing area from Illinois as extremely high CAPE (instability) from the untouched, hot, juicy airmass tries to move back northeastward north of outflow boundary from earlier storms.

These storms in Warren & Fountain counties are moving east & southeastward.  Tremendous lightning & torrential rainfall are accompanying it.

At the moment, strongest gusts with the storms are most likely east of Veedersburg (up to 46 mph).

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6:55 p.m.

I have received several reports of several large tree limbs down a few miles east of 65/26 with 1-2″ diameter hail.  Also had a report of a tree split.

The storm looks like it is collapsing near Monroe & Wyandot after belching out its downburst & large hail.

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STORM REPORTS:

(Gusts 35 mph or more [M=Measured   E=Estimated by Spotter)

E60 mph  4 Miles East of I-65 & 26

Tree Limbs & a Few Trees Down  4 Miles East of I-65 & 26

Powerlines/pole down on CR 200 N Southeast of 25/65 (Lafayette/Delphi) interchange

M43 mph  4.5 Miles Northeast of Frankfort

M37 mph Frankfort

M35  West of Frankfort at I-65 & 28

2.00″ Diameter Hail  4 Miles East of I-65 & 26

Damaged cars from hail at CR 550 & 26

1.75″  Diameter Hail CR 550 & 26

1.00″  Diameter Hail  Monitor

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6:40 p.m.

Looks like 50-60 mph wind core now in that storm near Dayton to Monitor with 0.25-0.88″ hail stones.

Severe warning continues until 7p for Tipp, Clinton…….technically SW Carroll, but you’ll miss the worst of it.  Also NE Montgomery in the warning.

After this downburst/hail burst, it will likely collapse.

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6:35 p.m.

All the other showers/storms are not impressive & more your typical summer storms.  However……………

The main storm is near Monitor & Dayton, where cap has likely been breached.  Hail for an extended period of time is possible on the east side, given the storm’s slow movement.

1-1.75″ hail still possible.  Had a report of 0.88″ hail near 65 & 26.

Wind may gust 40-50 mph with it.  Gusts to 43 mph reported northeast of Frankfort with gust front.  Kokomo Airport & Grissom gusted to 32 mph.

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6:20 p.m.

Storm near Battle Ground/east side of Lafayette has broken through the cap!  All of the others are tending to collapse.  Gust 40-50 mph also possible at the moment.

1-1.75″ hail possible between 26 & west of Monitor & near Meadowbrook.

This is dropping south toward Dayton.

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6 p.m.

Cass County Airport measured a t’storm gust to 28 mph & the White County Airport gusted to 20 mph.  Jasper County Airport measured a gust to 25 mph.

The storms have nice cool pool enhanced by the lake breeze front with quite a bit of lightning, but capping & lack of dynamics continues to be an issue.

An isolated severe gust or two &/or bit of haill is still possible given up to 5000 J/kg of MUCAPE.  Any storm that can protrude cap could pop out a severe gust (downburst) &/or a bit of hail.

Strongest storm is near Battle Ground.

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5:22 p.m.

Storms continue to work southeastward in our northeastern counties & southward in Benton County.  They are not particularly organized with lack of dynamics & capping issues.

If one can really break through & tap boiling instability, then a brief, severe wind gust could occur.

Right now, gusts of up to 37 mph are possible with the storms on radar.

Locally-heavy rainfall is also possible with these very high dew points of 75-80.

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4:47 P.M. Update

August 25th, 2014 at 4:47 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

SPC did go ahead & crank out a Severe T’Storm Watch (until midnight), given the extremely unstable airmass in our area with the boiling heat, though the storms appear to be weakening (given cap) at the moment.

This watch is largely due to possibility of some of the storms pulsing up through the cap & producing some downbursts.  There are also some other storms in northwestern Illinois that we need to monitor as the front slowly sinks back to the south.

This said, will stick to a few storms for this evening-tonight with isolated severe gusts (downbursts) & perhaps a bit of hail, but it is unclear if the storms will be able to really overcome all the capping.

With dew points of 75-80, locally-heavy rainfall is possible underneath any t’storm.

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