Outlook to Next Week

July 30th, 2014 at 12:22 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The same pattern will persist through Saturday.

Patchy, locally dense fog & areas of low clouds will form each night with a few lingering showers, followed by the fog & low stratus burning off in the morning hours.

Cumulus will then build & scattered t’storms will pop in the afternoon & last into the evening with an average of 30% coverage.  Isolated 0.25-0.75″ diameter hail is possible with isolated gusts of 40-50 mph.

This will occur as large, cold upper low spins southeastward through Ontario.  The cold air aloft will be more like September, while the sun angle & heating will be more like late summer.

Highs will run around 80 to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 50s to around 60.

Sunday-Wednesday look dry with temperatures reaching upper 80s by mid- to late-next week with dry weather for a few days.


Spotty Showers & T’Storms Developing

July 29th, 2014 at 3:14 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

6:31 p.m.

Scattered showers & t’storms continue to move southeastward.  New ones are forming in Pulaski County where temperatures have warmed back to 79.

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5:45 p.m.

Scattered storms continue in the area.  Pea hail possible with storm between Sharpsville & Kempton, headed for Tipton.

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4:35 p.m.

Scattered t’storms continue to progress through the area.  An arc of scattered storms is working southward, though the individual storms are moving southeastward.  50% chance of pea hail with storm near Monon.

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4 p.m.

Hail probabilities have decreased a bit in storm which is exited Miami County.

It has warmed up pretty nicely today!  It is 79 as of 4:03 p.m. at WLFI.  Airport had 77 as of 3:54 p.m.

However, if you get underneath one of these t’storms, wow does it cool off as that cold air aloft & perhaps hail is pulled to the surface.  Peru united dropped from 75 to 63.  That heavy, cold air also hits the ground at a good clip.  Gust of 39 mph measured with that passing t’storm.

Mary Anne in Remington has 79, as does Kentland & Crawfordsville.

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3:42 p.m.

Hail core evident southwest of Pettysville in Miami County.  Should pass between Pettysville & Erie.  Hail 0.25-0.75″ diameter possible.  Gusts 30-40 mph possible.

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3 p.m.

Spotty showers & t’storms are developing & will continue to do so through the afternoon.  Isolated hail 0.25-0.75″ in diameter & wind gusts to 45 mph are possible.

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Upper low with its large cold pocket has retrograded northwest & now southwest.  As this upper low then moves southeastward, combined with July-August sun angle & daily heating to the lower 80s, spotty t’storms will pop each day here through at least Saturday.  A few may produce hail &/or a brief strong gust or two.

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Unusually Cool Surface Water On Lake Michigan (At Least Back to 1981)

July 29th, 2014 at 1:56 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Low temperatures this morning:

DMA Map II

The unusually strong storm system for late July (so far south) produced strong winds that upwelled a lot of cold water on an already unusually cold Lake Michigan Saturday-Sunday.

This has resulted in the coldest surface lake temperatures on Lake Michigan (so late in the season) since 1981.

From NWS Chicago & Grand Rapids:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=103573&source=0

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grr/presentations/Lake_Temperatures_Drop_2014-07-28_23-57-02.pdf

On a side note, it was not just near record/record cool here, widespread record cool conditions occurred across southern & Indiana & the entire state of Kentucky.

A rarity is that is was just as cool in Kentucky & over parts of Tennessee as it was here, breaking numerous records.

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3rd Record Low Temperature In July: First Time Since 1988

July 29th, 2014 at 12:07 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The Purdue Ag Farm dropped to 47 this morning, breaking the old record of 49 set in 1994.  This is the third record low temperature for the month of July.  This is the first time this has happened since 1988.

Oddly, 1988 was one of the hottest summers on record, but dry air & soils & cool airmass from Canada in early July dropped temperatures to near all-time record lows for July (43).

At WLFI, we reached 49.1, while the airport dropped to 50.  Logansport dropped to 46, Grissom 49, Kokomo 50 & Rochester 52.


Record Lows Data For Viewing Area………….Outlook for Tuesday

July 28th, 2014 at 9:49 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Today was an unusually cool day in that so many locations failed to reach 70.  This is quite a feat in late July.  To have multiple periods of low 70s or 70 in July is rare.  Today’s 71 was unofficially the second coolest July 28 on record (since 1887) at West Lafayette.

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After mostly clear skies & some patchy fog (lows 46-51…………..near/at record cool levels) Tuesday morning, cumulus will rapidly bubble up all over the sky.  This is due to upper low moving back northwestward & several shortwaves pivoting around it into our area.  With these, freezing levels will be low by July standards with a lot of cold air aloft.  This, with the late July sun angle, will bubble up spotty showers & t’storms.  Isolated hail is possible.  Although most of these will diminish after dusk, another shortwave make spark a couple of showers even overnight Tuesday-early morning Wednesday in places.

Highs Tuesday will run 74-78.  Lows of 55-59 are likely Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.

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Smokey Sky & Where We Stand for the Summer

July 28th, 2014 at 3:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The skies should be deep beautiful blue, but are pale white/gray to almost sulfur yellow.  This is smoke due to Canadian wildfires moving over area in northwest upper flow.

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Where we stand with this summer’s & July’s temperatures from the Purdue Ag Farm COOP station.  Here at WLFI, our July temperature is 68.8, while it is 68.5 at the Ag Farm (68.8 at the Purdue Airport). 

Taking the station number, we would still tie with 2009 for coolest so far.  In 2009 our July temperature at the station was 70.1 (70.3 at the Purdue Airport) & we had 16 of 31 days drop into the 50s.  We did not hit 90 in July 2009, but peaked at 88.0 on July 10.  The warmest overnight low was 66 on July 15 & 28 in 2009. 

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Even tonight, near record cool weather is possible.  It is not uncommon to get a couple days of low 70s in July every few years, but to have consecutive rounds of such weather the entire month of July is RARE.  This puts July 2014 in a different category altogether. 

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Pale Sky From Canadian Wildfire Smoke…..Outlook to Next Week

July 28th, 2014 at 10:52 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A “SMOKEY” SKY…………..

You may notice pale sky today.  This is Canadian wildfire smoke as massive areas are burning with record heat & dryness in central Canada.  It is being pushed south in northwest flow.

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NEAR-RECORD COOL NIGHT AHEAD…………THEN UPPER LOW & SPOTTY T’STORMS AND ISOLATED WIND/HAIL………….

Upper low over eastern Canada will actually pivot backward to the west, then south a Tuesday-Thursday, then stall.  This will keep spotty t’storms popping each & every day over our area for near a week.

Here, surface CAPE values of 1000 J/kg Tuesday, 1500 Wednesday & Thursday, combined with late July-early August sun & cool air aloft with upper low will pop a few scattered t’storms each day.  Isolated strong wind/hail to 0.75″ diameter may occur.

Even Friday-Sunday, strong sun angle, warmer, more humid weather, surface CAPE to 2000 J/kg will support some pop-up scattered t’storms each day.  Isolated wind/hail is possible.  In fact, an isolated severe hailer (+1″ diameter) is possible, given slightly higher CAPE values.

Highs will run in the upper 70s Tuesday & Wednesday, around 80 Thursday & in the low 80s Friday-weekend.  Lows will run in the 50s tonight-Thursday.  Tonight looks to be the coolest night of the week with clear skies & patchy fog with lows near 51.  Tomorrow nights & Wednesday night’s lows will run 55-60.

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WARMER…………BUT NO 90s SEEN UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT………..

Looks like next week (week after this one) we may actually have a day or two that reaches the upper 80s.


Very Strong System For Late July

July 27th, 2014 at 7:49 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

To get grapefruit-sized hail in late July near the Tennessee line in Kentucky & baseball-sized hail in Tennessee is rare (owing to higher freezing levels in summer).  Also, for 10 homes to be completely destroyed by a tornado in Tennessee…….in late July is rare.

Such severe weather in the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northern Plains, even New England, yes, but in parts of the South, no.  Even very large hail seen today is not common in our area so late in the season.

The gusts to 44 mph this evening behind the front show the strength of the system that is more like May or October, than late July.

We, by all means, should’ve had a significant derecho yesterday, judging by similar systems in the past.  We missed it & today Michigan to North Carolina to New York is getting hammered by the unusually strong outbreak for so late in the season.

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Updates

July 27th, 2014 at 3:55 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

5:22 p.m.

Storms have exited, lower dew points & cooler air is coming in.  Winds are strong behind front to 40 mph from northwest, however.

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4:29 p.m.

We have gone from 86 with a dew point of 74 to now 84 with a dew point of 62 with passage of the cold front.  Winds are also gusting from the northwest to 40 mph behind it.

Storms are lining up the cold front with potentially localized gusts to 55 mph  from Kokomo to Ladoga.

Wind gusted to 40 mph (wind sustained around 30 mph) with storms at I-65 & 28, while a tree is down on power lines 3 miles northwest of Covington.

Covington measured t’storm gust of 52 mph, White County Airport 37 mph & Attica 36 mph.  Rochester gusted to 40 mph.

Kokomo Airport currently has sustained wind at 35 mph with gust 47 mph as storms move in.

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3:54 p.m.

Hail 0.50-1″ in diameter is possible in northern Cass County over next 20 minutes with gust to 50 mph.

0.25-0.75″ hail possible northern Fulton County.

0.25″ hail, gust to 55 mph possible Fountain to Montgomery counties.

Cold front continues to work through area with multi-cells & still potential of a supercell.

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3:20 P.M. Update

July 27th, 2014 at 3:21 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Line of multi-cells with one supercell (near Covington) are moving through the area with cold front & shortwave trough.  It is more unstable than yesterday with no cap, but we do not have the wind/fields/shear like yesterday in our area.  Regardless, shear/instability supports supercells & multi-cells & will maintain “few severe with wind/hail” wording for storms this afternoon.

Warning for Fountain/Montgomery is possible soon for hail/wind should storm continue to strengthen.

Meanwhile, tornadic supercell is approaching Columbus, Ohio with other hail/wind & tornadic storms in Kentucky.

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Here is a pic from near Klondike, looking southward:

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