Fall-Winter El Nino….What Does It Mean For Us?

May 23rd, 2015 at 11:40 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Last year data suggests weak to moderate El Nino, but that failed to really develop.  New models are suggesting strong to very strong El Nino event comparable with 1982-83 or 1997-98.

One might look at this outlook with a definite skepticism (given last year’s bust), however, El Nino is already now firmly established & pushing moderate strength.  Only four winters since 1975 have matched the current El Nino strength in the Pacific in May-June & they have not weakened or completely stopped like last year.  Two of those four were strong to very strong.  Current temperatures in the Pacific & the current regime are nearly identical to the spring preceding the Super El Nino of 1997-98.

The European model runs continue to put out a major event.

All this said, I think a strong event is certainly pretty probable.  Will it be very strong or a Super El Nino?  I am much less confident of that.

What does this mean for us?

Well, I plugged in the years with El Nino conditions similar to what we have right now in the Pacific since 1950 to see how the winter unfolded.

Record rainfall the other day in California for the time of year & flooding rains over the past month from Missouri to Texas to Louisiana all show earmarks of El Nino already.  For Los Angeles to get 0.72″ of rainfall from a storm system in later May is quite rare.

Here they are:

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This would all equate to very mild winter with below-normal snowfall for us, with normal rainfall.  This would also mean heavy, flooding, drought-denting or busting rainfall for California.

 

 


Outlook for the Memorial Day Weekend Through Next Week

May 23rd, 2015 at 9:58 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Today looks very good & most of Sunday, but 6 p.m. onward Sunday, some scattered showers/t’storms are possible.  A lull is possible after midnight Sunday night before more come in Monday morning.  It appears those may exit by noon, followed by a break with sun.  More are possible later in the afternoon-evening.

Highs today will run 75-80 with lows tonight at 55-60, followed by highs of 78-82 Sunday * 80-83 Monday.

All of next week there will be periodic scattered showers & t’storms.  However, there will be hours of dry time in-between rounds.  The exact timing of each wave is unclear, but will become more apparent with time.  Highs of 78-84 are likely through the entire week with lows of 64-68.

Although no widespread, organized severe threat is seen, isolated severe t’storms are possible.  The timing of isolated severe weather is blurry at the moment, but will become more apparent with time, as well.


Pannonian Plain

May 22nd, 2015 at 6:22 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

This is northern Serbia on the Pannonian Plain that stretches from Croatia & northern Serbia, over Hungary to Romania.

It has been said that this plain’s rich soils “feed all of Europe”.  It is also called “Europe’s Breadbasket”.

This plain’s native vegetation is prairie & savanna/barrens much like central/northern Illinois, Iowa to northwestern Indiana.

Part of the overall Carpathian Basin, this plain is known for rich, deep, dark loamy soils highly-suitable for corn & soybean production.  It is actually the floor of an ancient sea millions of years ago that deposited up to +4 miles of sediment.  A layer of floury, silty wind-blown loess covers the plain.  Eventually, the sea drained to the Aegean Sea & left was a shallow lake.  What was left of the lake was limited to some marshy prairie at the end of the Ice Age.

Given that the plain/lake was developed with the uplift of the Carpathian Mountains & several original islands in the sea/lake are now isolated knobby hills, the flora & fauna of the area is unique & endemic to the region.

It sure may look like Indiana in this region, but it is eastern Europe’s plain that feeds the continent.

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Photos of the Day

May 22nd, 2015 at 4:42 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Looks like Benton, White, Clinton or really any county in our viewing area.  So…………..where are these photos from?

Here’s another:

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Photo Question of the Day

May 22nd, 2015 at 1:52 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I love studying soils, geology, geomorphology, weather & ag from around the U.S. & around the world.  Each day I’ll show a pic from some area of the U.S. or world & you have to guess where it was taken.

These pics show corn & soybean fields on level terrain with  rich soil, like in our area.  Where were these scenes photographed?

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Warm, Humid Weather with Off & On Showers/T’Storms Ahead

May 22nd, 2015 at 11:37 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Still appears any scattered showers/t’storms will be after 6 or 7 p.m. Sunday.  It looks dry until then with sun & 69-74 today, 45-50 tonight & 73-78 tomorrow (55-60 Saturday night), then 78-82 Sunday.

Periods of showers/t’storms interspersed with sun will be the story all of next week with highs of 78-84, lows of 64-68 & 1.5-3.25″ area-wide by next Saturday.

In terms of severe weather, best chances will be in the Plains/western Corn Belt, but isolated severe threat may develop early next week.


Warmer Weather Ahead

May 21st, 2015 at 5:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

What a nice day!  Temps are running 63-67 now.  40-45 lows are likely early, followed by a slight rise late as some patchy clouds increase with passage of a very weak front.  It is not out of the question that an isolated shower or sprinkle will occur with the front in the northeastern half of the viewing area.

However, behind the front, it will actually warm up tomorrow as warm air actually pushed east & southeastward from the northwest & large, warm upper ridge builds over Canada & into the Plains.

Highs tomorrow with 69-74 are likely tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.


Chilly Now, Much Warmer Times Ahead

May 21st, 2015 at 9:42 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

There are a few spotty showers/sprinkles this morning, but some clearing is likely this afternoon.  Temperatures are in the 40s now, but will give way to near 60 to the mid 60s this afternoon.

After 40s tonight, upper 60s to lower 70s look good tomorrow with lots of sunshine.

After upper 40s to 50 Saturday morning, sun & 74-78 looks good for Saturday afternoon with 50s Saturday night.

Latest data suggests that any scattered showers/t’storms Sunday may not move in until after 8 p.m. with continued slowing of the next system.  Highs of 77-81 look good with partly cloudy skies.

It now appears that we may have periodic scattered showers & t’storms all of next week with warm, humid highs in the 79-84 range & lows of 64-69.  Total rainfall by the end of next week may run 1.50-3.25″ for the viewing area.  A series of storm systems will pivot through the area, keeping it raining/storming off & on for several days.  There will be periods of several hours with completely dry weather in-between episodes, however.

Severe weather potential in the Plains & western Corn Belt is a given.  Here, it may get close & flirt with us some.  I think isolated severe may occur on one or two days, otherwise, it is just your typical late spring showers/t’storms.

 

 


Cold Night!

May 20th, 2015 at 10:33 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The spotty/scattered showers are exiting & after 0.03″ here at WLFI, it is one damp, cold night wtih 44.6 as of 10:33 p.m.!  This is true Black Locust winter!

Clouds may continue to break some overnight, but not everywhere.  Some clearing is occurring right now, dropping temperatures to as low as 41 in our northwestern & western areas.  Lows of 37-42 look good.

With skies becoming partly cloudy tomorrow, it does not look quite as warm as it looked early.  I trimmed the temperature projections from 64-69 to 61-66.  North winds will turn northwesterly, then westerly.

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Tie For Second Coolest May 20 On Record

May 20th, 2015 at 4:27 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

So far today, our high temperature has been just 52.6 degrees, making it the coolest May 20 since 1968 & the second coolest May 20 in the 1879-present data set.  52 is the coolest May 20, set in 1919.

We are currently sitting at 52.2 as of 4:27 p.m. with some scattered showers/sprinkles around the area.  Scattered showers will tend to increase a bit this evening before ending tonight.  Temperatures will fall into the unseasonably cool mid to upper 40s this evening.

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