12/6 5:34 P.M.
Dry air continues to chew away at the snow, best chance for minor accumulations looking to be south & southeast of Lafayette.
Will update again later this evening.
12/6 4:41 P.M.
12/6 3:43 P.M.
How far north will the snow get?
Lines represent where models paint how far north the snow may make it to the ground:
NWS continues with Winter Weather Advisory for 1-3″ for southeastern half & I am inclined to keep forecast status quo given heavier snow falling to our southwest in Illinois southwest of Champaign.
However, wave of snow is continually chewed up by dry Arctic air, so I am beginning to side more with the HRRR & NAM, even though NAM painted up to 5″ of snow in Tippecanoe County & 2″ in the north yesterday.
Temperature has fallen at the station from a high today of 27 to 22 as of 4:21 p.m.
12/6 10:55 A.M.
First initial wave of wintry precip in our south is long gone with anywhere from a trace to 1.3″ of snow/sleet in our southern areas.
The main wave for us will be what is ejecting out of Oklahoma & into Arkansas & Missouri right now.
This will likely bring some snow to the area later today. NAM, the really aggressive model yesterday with snowfall, keeps us 100% snow-free today. The GFS model, which has been the more reliable model with this, does bring the snow in during afternoon-evening.
GFS shows a saturated column at around 5 p.m., rather than the NAM skew-T, which is still has very dry layer at low-levels at that point (& no snow).
Still went with anywhere from around 1″ to as much as 2″ for much of the area, but 2-4s & 4-6s in far south.
It is likely that there will be a sharp cutoff between snow & no snow in our Newton, Jasper & Pulaski counties.
Stay tuned for updates.
FIRST MAP IS HRRR MODEL PROJECTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING……SECOND MAP IS HOW MUCH SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED SO FAR………….THIRD MAP IS PROJECTIONS FOR SNOWFALL BY THE TIME IT ENDS TONIGHT………
WTHI-TV CAMS……………Terre Haute & Vincennes Cams………………..third image is WISH-TV cam on west side of Indianapolis near Crawfordsville Road & I-465.
12/5 10:27 P.M.
Slick roads are being reported in Montgomery, Boone, Howard & Tipton counties with light snow/sleet accumulations.
Reports vary from a light dusting near Frankfort to just over 1″ at New Ross & 0.4″ east of Crawfordsville.
Precip line has been running from Covington to Frankfort to Kokomo, but is gradually exiting our southern counties.
Again, the main wave of snow for the viewing area as a whole is in Kansas & Oklahoma & will pass tomorrow.
The current wave is the wintry mix wave forecasted for along & south of that Pence-Lafayette-Kokomo line, then a break. That break is still on schedule for tonight.
Projected snowfall totals by tomorrow evening still look good. Gusts to 25 mph from the north later tomorrow still look likely, as well with some blowing/drifting of east-west roadways.
12/5 8:42 P.M.
Some light snow is falling Crawfordsville to Frankfort to Tipton. It may be mixed with a few bits of sleet at times.
Just a few flakes briefly at WLFI & that is it. Just 25 & overcast with stiff north winds at 12 mph presently.
Current snow forecast for Friday still looks good.
12/5 6:27 P.M.
Some light snow/sleet is falling in our southwestern areas, but most of it is virga (precipitation evaporating before it reaches the ground) north of there.
I have taken out the mention of freezing rain, as the depth of Arctic air is now too deep to support any freezing rain.
This initial wave of light snow/sleet may bring some very light accumulations mainly along & south of that Pence to Lafayette to Peru line.
12/5 3:41 P.M.
Pushed 2-4′s & 4-6′s north a bit, given new data. This is a nice compromise among all model solutions & analog data. The NAM is the model really cranking out the snow for the state & our viewing area, but I am not 100% agreeing with that.
Regardless, this will be our first decent widespread +1″ snowfall.
Again some mix is possible Pence to Lafayette to Peru & southeastward with minor accumulations & some slick roads.
The main wave of snow for our area will be tomorrow with a rough afternoon & evening commute with gusty north winds to 25 mph by afternoon & evening. Temperatures will fall from 29 around midday to 23 by 5 p.m. with wind chills dropping into the single digits by evening.
The wind will create blowing & drifting snow on east-west roads.
12/5 2:19 P.M.
The wave of light snow, sleet & some freezing rain will arriving later today, generally south of a Pence to Lafayette to Peru line.
A light film of ice/snow/sleet is possible.
12/5 11:24 A.M.
No need for changes.
Wintry mix Pence to Lafayette to Peru later today-tonight with minor accumulations of ice/snow.
1-2″ for most of area with 2-4″ far southeast looks good by Friday evening.
Additional 2-4″ snow for good chunk of area & 1-2″ in southeast half looks good for Sunday. Sleet & freezing rain will cut totals in the 1-2″ zone.
Conditions will worsen as you move southward. Ice storm likely Texas to Kentucky with 4-6″ snow southern to south-central Indiana with isolated +6″ amounts.
12/4 9:30 P.M.
No need for any changes, still after several days, 1-2″ snow looks good for Friday. The near 1″ amounts will be in the north half with amounts closer to 2″ in the south. +2″ may skim by southeastern Montgomery, Boone, Tipton counties Friday. Prior to this some light snow, sleet & freezing rain looks possible in the evening-into Thursday night with only light accumulations (mainly Pence to Lafayette to Peru & southward).
Sunday 2-4″ for most of area with 1-2″ southeast looks good. Went 1-2″ southeast due to potential sleet/freezing rain there cutting totals some. There has been a tendency for the Sunday event to look more potent & widespread for the viewing area as a whole & that still looks to be the case. So, I went ahead shifted that 2-4″ north with the system trending farther north.
Cold front is coming through area now with a line of showers developing. These may continue to develop, with perhaps even a t’storm. Thunder & lightning has been reported in Michigan. Winds are gusty along the front & just behind it with sustained winds at 20-24 & gusts to 31 mph in Illinois.
Temperatures are running 57-63 now, but will fall to near 37 by morning.
Low will drop to 0-7 by Tuesday night. Even Monday night will see lows of 6-11. Highs will reach just the teens Tuesday & Wednesday, despite mostly sunny skies. If the winds can really calm down Tuesday night, below 0 is attainable, given likelihood of snow pack & a massive area covered by snow from Kentucky to the Arctic Circle.
The record lows at West Lafayette are -11 & -12 for Monday & Tuesday. These were set in 1958 & 1977.