Wet August & September!

September 16th, 2014 at 12:48 am by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

It has definitely been a historically wet August-September period.  Parts of White County have received 18″ of rainfall since August 1!

At WLFI, we have measured 12.32″ since August 1 from the 8.60″ in August to the 3.72″ so far in September.  The normal for the entire month of September is 2.98″.

At the Purdue Ag Farm, as of 7 a.m. on September 15, the totals was 11.67″.  After the 15th rainfall, it is probably more like 12.17″.  The exact number will be out on the morning of September 16.

Putting this +12″ of rainfall since August 1 into local weather history shows that 2014 is at least 8th in wettest August-September periods & is more likely 6th at West Lafayette.  This is impressive in that it is only early on September 16 as I type this.

The records below only go back to 1890, as I do not have the rest of my data in front of me, as it is filed at the office.  I will  have the rest of the data (late 1879-1889) as a part of the list tomorrow.

I will also have additional data on wet pattern tomorrow & a look at other weather stations in the viewing area & their rainfall anomalies for this period.

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10 P.M. Update

September 15th, 2014 at 10:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The showers have exited, but low clouds & fog are across the viewing area as of 10 p.m.

Low clouds, fog & mist will dominate the overnight with lows of 47-53.

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Tomorrow, the day may start gloomy with low clouds, fog & mist, but it is likely that this will all burn off with a partly cloudy afternoon of cumulus with highs of 64-70 with a north wind at 5-10 mph.

Patchy dense fog  likely tomorrow night with lows near 45.


Rainfall Totals As of 4 p.m.

September 15th, 2014 at 4:13 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Rainfall totals as of 4 p.m.:

DMA Map II

Much of the shower/t’storm action has exited, but there are a few spotty showers up stream.  The heavier showers & t’storms may skim by the southwest as they move southeastward out of the Decatur-Champaign area.

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Outlook to October 5

September 15th, 2014 at 12:56 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Check this out:  Record heat is dominating areas from California to Alaska…….similar pattern to what we saw in July & last winter.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
731 PM AKDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT FAIRBANKS AND DELTA JUNCTION...

FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 76
DEGREES TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 73 DEGREES SET BACK
IN 1938. FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ALSO SET A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY...AND RECORDED A RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE SATURDAY AS WELL.

DELTA JUNCTION REACHED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES TODAY.
THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 67 DEGREES SET IN 2006.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NORMALS THIS TIME
OF YEARS ARE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for the L.A. area with unusual heat & dryness around Portland, Oregon with wildfire smoke:

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I was able to look our even farther than October 1 this morning & this is the general trend……….

At the moment the back edge of showers/t’storms is running from Jasper to Benton to Warren counties.

There is another area of showers along the I-55 in central Illinois.  So, will keep 50% coverage of rainfall into the afternoon, then drop it off with time late afternoon to this evening.

High temperatures today are problematic.  Temperatures have reached 67 in our southeast, but are holding in the mid to upper 50s where there is a lot of rainfall.  Temperatures are climbing into the 60s in northern Illinois where it is not raining & the break in east-central Illinois shows temperatures reaching 60 in some places.

Thinking for the rest of the afternoon, with still some showers around, will shoot for 60-65.  With some many showers around, it will be a bit hard to warm up, even with a south wind.

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Overall this week through September 30 looks drier than it has been over the past 1.5 months.  Since August 1, 90% of the 7-day forecasts have featured potential of at least scattered t’storms on at least 4 of the 7 days!

There are showers & t’storms today & there will be more Saturday night-Sunday, but otherwise, only September 30-October 1 showers a strong response to showers & t’storms through October 5.

Tuesday-Saturday morning looks great with lots of sun & highs in the upper 60s at first to around 81 by Saturday (with 70s in-between).

As said, showers & t’storms are likely Saturday night-Sunday as the remnant moisture of Hurricane Odile in combination with a storm system brings rain & t’storms.  With remnant tropical mositure & pretty vigorous system, it would seem that locally-heavy rainfall could occur.  Also, with warmer, humid, more unstable airmass & reasonable dynamics, I think it is safe to assume that at least an isolated severe threat may develop.  This is dependent upon how unstable it gets.

Following this, there is still no clear signal of a cold intrusion.  70s seem reasonable, perhaps even a few lower 80s in the viewing area until fairly strong storm system passes September 29-October 1.  This could bring a round of showers & t’storms & much cooler air.

As we end September & begin October, there is a signal of cool air coming in with highs in the 50s.  Frost is a distinct possibility in the first few days of October.  Figuring up thicknesses, lows in the mid 30s cannot be ruled out.

However, warmer weather with 70s may come back in quickly by October 5.

Keep in mind that this outlook is to give you an idea of trends.  Undoubtedly, days will be shifted regarding rainfall & temperatures & the pattern will be monitored daily.  Be aware of tweaks to the forecast.

 


12 P.M. Update

September 15th, 2014 at 12:01 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Scattered showers & t’storms will increase in coverage over the next hour as cold pocket aloft passes with clipper-like system.  Low-level jet has also been transporting unstable air northward & push it up & over, cool, stable layer closer to the surface.

Showers & t’storms will tend to peak in the afternoon.  Overall 50% coverage looks good.

Cold air aloft & elevated unstable air supports an isolated pea hailer or two.

 


Outlook to October 1

September 14th, 2014 at 7:56 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Highs Sunday:

DMA Map IV

Weak clipper-like system will pass through Monday with some scattered showers.  Although a few isolated showers cannot totally be ruled out during the morning, it appears that the better coverage will be in the afternoon-evening (35%).  An isolated t’storm is possible.

After 40s tonight, highs near 70 look good for Monday with south & southwest winds.  The low temperature tonight will likely occur around 3 or 4 a.m., then rise some as south wind commences & some clouds move in.  40s look good, but may rise to near 50 by 7 a.m.

Tuesday looks good with highs near 70, while nice, bright warm weather will dominate Wednesday-Saturday.  Highs in the 70s will be the norm mid- to late-week.  In fact, we may see 81 by next Saturday with 70s Sunday.

In terms of rainfall, after our Monday clipper-like system, it looks dry until next Saturday night-Sunday morning.  At that point there are signs that the remnant moisture from Hurricane Odile will pass.  The hurricane’s remnant circulation will gell with surface low developing in Colorado & move east & northeast.  By Saturday night to Sunday morning, it should be near Chicago with a cold front draped near the area with showers & t’storms moving into & pass through the viewing area.

The Odile remnants could cause more flooding in Arizona with current data suggesting a few inches of rainfall in parts of southern & eastern Arizona to New Mexico.

After Sunday, September 21, it actually points to an overall dry trend to September 28.

During this time, there is not much chilly weather.  Any deviation from normal looks to be more above than below it.  With the data in front of me, there is no day below 70 & no night below mid 40s.  As a matter of fact, some data suggests lower 80s September 26-28.  We shall see regarding exact numbers, but there is certainly a trend today of warmer weather.

Wetter weather definitely shows a sign of moving back in September 29-October 1.  It will also cool off.  In fact, highs by September 30-October may only be in the 50s.

This is the trend.  Undoubtedly, the exact days may shift some, but this gives you an idea of the pattern to October 1.

 


Cold Morning with Patchy Dense Fog……..Nice Afternoon Ahead & Not as Cool Tonight

September 14th, 2014 at 12:02 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

After 60-66 yesterday & 37-44 (with patchy dense fog……..some airports down to 0.25 mile visibility) this morning, we are headed for 65-70 today.

Tonight will not be as cold with lows of 45-50.

DMA Map IIIDMA Map IIDMA Map I


Cold Night Ahead

September 13th, 2014 at 10:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

A cold night is ahead!  Lows will drop to 36-43.  Some light frost patches are possible in north northern, northeastern & patches in our eastern counties.

Meanwhile, near record warmth is occurring in central Alaska & Fairbanks could break a record high tomorrow in the mid 70s.  Today, even with a near-solid overcast, Fairbanks area still managed to get to near-record warm levels in the 70s.  Record heat is likely from California to British Columbia tomorrow-early week.  90s are possible in western Oregon & Washington.

As for us, some patchy, shallow dense fog is also possible tonight

Sunday looks mostly sunny with highs of 65-70.

DMA Map II


1964 Early Cold Wave & 10:27 P.M. Update

September 12th, 2014 at 10:28 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The early morning hours of September 13, 1964 saw some of the coldest temperatures so early in the season.  To this day, this is the earliest freeze on record for most of the area.  The only other comparably cold scenario so early was 1883.  Numbers appear to have dropped into the 31-37 range, but data is rather limited in the area.  Purdue dropped to 33, downtown Indianapolis on a roof top of a downtown building was 41.  Delphi was unofficially 31.

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Areas of light rain & drizzle continue to move through the area.  Temperatures are steady in the cool 49-56, headed for 45-51 by early morning & 63-67 Saturday with skies turning partly cloudy.124119


Unseasonable Cool Stretch Continues

September 12th, 2014 at 4:41 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

The 59 at the station today would UNOFFICIALLY make it the 3rd coolest September 12th on record.  The coolest temperature prior to September 15 in the 1879-present record is 52 in 1902.

Yesterday, I had originally had 59 in 1995 as the coolest September 11.  All of the other data is correct, but I shuffled a September 9 & 11 paper & it is not 59 in 1995, but 60 in 1968.

Tomorrow will be warmer than today, but will still rank up in the top 5 coolest daily high temperatures.

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