Check this out: Record heat is dominating areas from California to Alaska…….similar pattern to what we saw in July & last winter.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
731 PM AKDT SUN SEP 14 2014
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT FAIRBANKS AND DELTA JUNCTION...
FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 76
DEGREES TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 73 DEGREES SET BACK
IN 1938. FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ALSO SET A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY...AND RECORDED A RECORD WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE SATURDAY AS WELL.
DELTA JUNCTION REACHED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES TODAY.
THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 67 DEGREES SET IN 2006.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NORMALS THIS TIME
OF YEARS ARE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for the L.A. area with unusual heat & dryness around Portland, Oregon with wildfire smoke:
I was able to look our even farther than October 1 this morning & this is the general trend……….
At the moment the back edge of showers/t’storms is running from Jasper to Benton to Warren counties.
There is another area of showers along the I-55 in central Illinois. So, will keep 50% coverage of rainfall into the afternoon, then drop it off with time late afternoon to this evening.
High temperatures today are problematic. Temperatures have reached 67 in our southeast, but are holding in the mid to upper 50s where there is a lot of rainfall. Temperatures are climbing into the 60s in northern Illinois where it is not raining & the break in east-central Illinois shows temperatures reaching 60 in some places.
Thinking for the rest of the afternoon, with still some showers around, will shoot for 60-65. With some many showers around, it will be a bit hard to warm up, even with a south wind.
Overall this week through September 30 looks drier than it has been over the past 1.5 months. Since August 1, 90% of the 7-day forecasts have featured potential of at least scattered t’storms on at least 4 of the 7 days!
There are showers & t’storms today & there will be more Saturday night-Sunday, but otherwise, only September 30-October 1 showers a strong response to showers & t’storms through October 5.
Tuesday-Saturday morning looks great with lots of sun & highs in the upper 60s at first to around 81 by Saturday (with 70s in-between).
As said, showers & t’storms are likely Saturday night-Sunday as the remnant moisture of Hurricane Odile in combination with a storm system brings rain & t’storms. With remnant tropical mositure & pretty vigorous system, it would seem that locally-heavy rainfall could occur. Also, with warmer, humid, more unstable airmass & reasonable dynamics, I think it is safe to assume that at least an isolated severe threat may develop. This is dependent upon how unstable it gets.
Following this, there is still no clear signal of a cold intrusion. 70s seem reasonable, perhaps even a few lower 80s in the viewing area until fairly strong storm system passes September 29-October 1. This could bring a round of showers & t’storms & much cooler air.
As we end September & begin October, there is a signal of cool air coming in with highs in the 50s. Frost is a distinct possibility in the first few days of October. Figuring up thicknesses, lows in the mid 30s cannot be ruled out.
However, warmer weather with 70s may come back in quickly by October 5.
Keep in mind that this outlook is to give you an idea of trends. Undoubtedly, days will be shifted regarding rainfall & temperatures & the pattern will be monitored daily. Be aware of tweaks to the forecast.