Occurences of 90 or Greather This Summer……Cooler Here Than Arctic Regions Today with Incredible Heat There

July 23rd, 2014 at 10:32 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Below are the occurrence of 90 or greater in the viewing area in 2014 (as of July 23).

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The heat in the Arctic right now is incredible.  Areas with permanent ice were in the 70s today & the shores of Victoria Island, on the Arctic Circle, were near 80.  These readings are exceeding all-time record levels for some of these locations.

It was warmer in the Northwest Territories than it was here today, but we still had 75-80.

Even out west, the heat is intense.  The high elevations in the West are exceeding 100 & major wildfires are on-going near Seattle.  Hundreds of fires are underway out west & in Canada with this massive upper ridge.

Our cooler weather is the air spilling in from Ontario & Quebec.  The winds are also blowing due north to north-northeast right down the still cooler-than-normal levels of the Great Lakes.

Here, we are already down to 59-64 across there area as of 10:45 p.m.

After low to mid 50s tonight, 50-54 tomorrow night will be within 1-2 degrees of tying low temperatures for Friday morning.

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Next week (after very warm, humid weekend with 2-3 waves of showers/storms):

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4 P.M. Update

July 23rd, 2014 at 3:50 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We had 89.5 at WLFI yesterday, making it the 4th occurrence of 90 this year.  Kokomo Airport hit 90, as did the Fulton County Airport.  Our weather station at our tower site in Rossville hit 90, as did several our Mesonet sites.  I did notice 90s in the Chicago area (91 Midway Airport), even 94 at Detroit & 92 at Columbus, Ohio.  Even southern Indiana was in the 90s with 92 at Evansville & 91 at Huntingburg.  The lower readings in our western & southwestern counties are a bit of a mystery, while the east & northeast was hotter.

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The rainfall this morning was a case of the haves & have nots.  Some places received a nice, soaking, heavy rainfall, while others received little, if anything.  In many instances, the heavy rainfall & little/no rainfall varied by less than 7 miles.

Just a trace at WLFI & the grass is beginning to dry up & go dormant.  Soils are dry at my place!

This makes no measurable rainfall here at the television station since July 14.

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Warm front will pass Friday night-Saturday morning with a round of some showers & t’storms.  No severe weather is currently expected.

Much of Saturday looks dry.  The afternoon will feature nice southerly winds & highs in the mid 80s with skies partly to mostly cloudy. 

Strong mid & upper jet (for the time of year) will begin to dip southward with upper trough Saturday night.  Severe t’storms will likely develop to our northwest with wind/hail/isolated tornado.  These will likely congeal into an MCS & affect us with a wind threat Saturday night-Sunday morning.

This will pull away & the sun will appears with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with partly cloudy skies.

Some new scattered storms may form on the actual surface cold front Sunday late afternoon-evening, while organized, widespread severe threat will evolve from Vermont to Kentucky.

Right now, these do not look severe with coverage at around 30%.

The third wave of much cooler 70s air in July will arrive for Monday.

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1 P.M. Update

July 23rd, 2014 at 1:10 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

New t’storms that formed in our southern areas are now exiting as of 1 p.m.

I measured just a trace of rainfall at the television station from this morning, but parts of the area received 1″.  Some places around Indianapolis received 2″.

The only reports of wind damage came from Hoopeston, Illinois & northwest White County, where tree limbs were downed.  The biggest limbs of up to half a foot in diameter occurred at Hoopeston.  Hail up to 1.25″ diameter fell north of the area in Elkhart County, Indiana with 0.25″ around Indianapolis.

Now, skies will tend to clear with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with brisk north winds.  We will drop into the 50s tonight.

It will warm into the 80s for the weekend with highs humidity & a couple/several rounds of some showers & t’storms.  Temperatures will cool back to the 70s for the first part of next week.

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11:15 P.M. Update

July 22nd, 2014 at 11:05 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Capping issues exist in Illinois & Missouri, but line of storms from Rockford, Illinois to Grand Rapids, Michigan is dropping southward (where capping is less).

Scattered storms (40%) will enter area after midnight as this line moves southward.  A couple strong to severe gusts are possible with it, perhaps some small hail.

Some of you will see no rainfall or storms, but some of you will get a vigorous t’storm.

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9:03 P.M. Update

July 22nd, 2014 at 9:05 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

HRRR model continues to show some storms moving into our area after midnight.

Some storms have popped in a scattered fashion in Missouri, Illinois & Wisconsin to Michigan, but many of them are struggling due to capping issues.

Some have managed to protrude through, but if cap strengthens any more, many will collapse.

Regardless, decent flow aloft & potential of some storms to penetrate through will keep 40% POPs in forecast for after midnight to Wednesday morning.

Should storms get going at a good clip, some scattered strong to severe gusts & perhaps bit of hail are possible.

HRRR Model Radar Projection at around 1-2 a.m.

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More Top Tens…………Outlook for Tonight-Tomorrow Based On Latest Data

July 22nd, 2014 at 4:12 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Below is a Top Ten list for summers at NWS Kokomo COOP station since 1901 & Rochester COOP since 1904.

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As of 11 p.m., HRRR model shows storms nearing our northern counties.

Scattered storms still look good for after midnight with broken cluster/line or perhaps a rather compact MCS.  There is no guarantee everyone will get storms/rain, but 40% coverage seems reasonable.  Scattered strong-severe gusts also seem reasonable given arm of stronger westerlies branching off into area.  A bit of hail cannot be ruled out.

Lows will drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Some scattered storms may linger into the morning.  A few more may re-fire in our southern areas near midday, then they will quickly exit.

Highs tomorrow will run 77-82 with strong north winds up to 30 mph in the afternoon as cooler, less humid air comes in.

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A Top Ten……T’Storm Outlook For Tonight-Wednesday Morning

July 22nd, 2014 at 12:11 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

I am still working on these top ten lists.  Delphi is finished, however.

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It is a hot one!  Heat Advisories are as far east as western Illinois.

Temperatures are surging well into the 80s across the viewing area with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

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Segment of stronger upper flow will branch off & nose into Iowa & Illinois this evening (notice new NAM model data below showing a southerly extension or arm of stronger westerlies).  This has caused an expansion of severe weather threat area into our viewing area tonight-tomorrow morning.

Given the residual heat/instability (though it will be waning) & a bit more southerly stronger flow aloft, potential of t’storms organizing into a cluster or two or possibly an MCS/line exists.  Scattered strong-severe gusts are possible.  A bit of hail cannot be ruled out.

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Outlook to August 6

July 21st, 2014 at 10:43 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

We have had a lot of haze & pale skies since last week.  A chunk of this is actually smoke from Canadian wildfires.  This was especially the case last week.  Now, the paleness is more pollution, pollution & moisture from sinking air of upper ridge, rather than Canadian smoke.  I noticed this paleness in Wisconsin as Canadian smoke passed over.  Below is an image of the smoke on Thursday of last week.

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Patchy dense fog is likely tonight with lows of 60-65.  Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies will dominate with thick haze & highs of 90-95.

Wind will not provide much relief with south to southwest winds at 5-15 mph.

Heat indices will run in the upper 90s to around 100.

It will turn cooler Wednesday after a sultry Tuesday night with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

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Severe weather outbreak is on-going over North Dakota & Manitoba.  These storms will blast Minnesota & Wisconsin, then tend to collapse.

However, new storms will fire to our northwest by tomorrow afternoon-evening.

It looks as if these storms will weaken before their arrival here late tomorrow night-Wednesday morning.  “Scattered storms” seems reasonable for area in the late night-morning.  Midday-early afternoon, new storms will likely re-fire in our southern third with the actual surface cold front.

In terms of severe weather, the severe threat will tend to be northwest of us tonight & tomorrow.  Given the fact that the stronger flow aloft will remain north of the area, it seems reasonable that organized severe will stay north of here.  Those stronger wind fields will set up over New England & southeastern Canada on Wednesday.

However, I would not be surprised to see a couple of isolated severe storms with wind as the main threat.  The widespread severe potential looks low at the moment.  If stronger flow aloft is a bit farther south or storms develop very good, organized cool pool (line), then this could change.  00z data shows a bit better set-up for some severe, but I would rather wait on additional data to alter the severe forecast right now.

Cooler, less humid will arrive behind front with 50s at night & 70s to lower 80s Wednesday & Thursday.  Friday will feature lower 80s.

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Front will move back north & bring some periodic showers/storms to our area Saturday-Sunday.  Humid conditions will dominate Saturday & Sunday with 80s & lows near 70.

In terms of the weather for the Brickyard 400, it appears rainfall coverage may peak for Sunday in the late afternoon & evening.

After this, return of highs in the upper 70s to around 80 & lows in the 50s are likely early next week.  In fact, nearly, if not, all of next week looks dry with a slow warm up back to mid 80s by next Friday.  August 2-6 looks warm to rather hot & humid with highs of 85-90 & lows near 70 with some periodic showers & t’storms.

No heat waves are currently seen to August 6.  However, given potential of deep Alaskan trough by August 10, that may change on/after that date.

 


Summer Top Ten Lists

July 21st, 2014 at 7:00 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

Below is the top 10 hottest, coolest, driest & wettest summers at West Lafayette (Ag Farm & Purdue University) since 1896.  I will combine the 1887-1895 data tonight & eventually the 1880-1886 data.

I also hope to get a summer top ten list of other communities in the viewing area that have long record data sets, including Rensselaer, Logansport, Rochester, Frankfort, Crawfordsville & Kokomo.

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I Will Be On 5-6 P.M.

July 21st, 2014 at 1:36 pm by under Chad's WLFI Weather Blog

If absolutely any of you have any question whatsoever, I will be on the blog today 5-6 p.m. (for immediate response).

-Chad